Novo Nordisk Plunges! Raises Guidance, but Core Drug Wegovy Sales Miss Expectations

Novo Nordisk AS raised its full-year performance guidance for the second time this year, but quarterly sales of its Wegovy weight-loss tablets failed to exceed analyst expectations, dragging its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) down more than 7%.

The company's latest guidance indicates that the decline in adjusted sales and operating profit for 2026 will narrow to a range of 6% to flat, an improvement over the previously projected maximum decline of 12%. However, the market had high hopes for Wegovy tablets, a globally anticipated new product, expecting impressive results, and the final outcome disappointed investors.

Total sales grew by 3% at constant exchange rates to DKK 78.49 billion (approximately $12.1 billion); adjusted sales grew by 7%. Adjusted operating profit rose by 11% at constant exchange rates to DKK 33.39 billion.

Jared Holz, healthcare industry strategist at Mizuho Securities, pointed out in a client report that the guidance upgrade was "clearly not outstanding," and that Wegovy tablet sales failing to beat market expectations were the main factor dragging down the stock price. However, he also stated that "from an overall trajectory perspective, this represents an improvement compared to the beginning of the year."

Wegovy Tablet Sales Miss Expectations

Novo Nordisk AS's Q2 Wegovy tablet sales totaled DKK 3.22 billion, below the average analyst expectation of DKK 3.27 billion compiled by StreetAccount.

CEO Mike Doustdar stated in a release that prescriptions for the tablet have cumulatively exceeded 5 million since its launch in January this year. For the week ending July 17, total weekly prescriptions in the United States exceeded 265,000.

Wegovy tablets are considered one of the most successful new product launches in modern obesity medication to date, which is precisely why market expectations for outperformance were particularly strong.

The failure of sales data to "explode," combined with conservative wording in the overall guidance, led to a sharp intraday drop in Novo Nordisk AS's ADRs.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk AS warned of declining sales in its U.S. business. The company attributed this to a combination of multiple factors:

Slowing prescription trends for GLP-1 injectables, intensifying competition, narrowed Medicaid coverage for obesity medications, and lower actual selling prices in the U.S. market—the latter partly stemming from the "most-favored-nation" drug pricing agreement reached between the company and the Trump administration.

Competition with Eli Lilly Escalates

Novo Nordisk AS is engaged in fierce market competition with its U.S. rival, Eli Lilly.

The obesity medication market is estimated to reach $120 billion annually by 2030. Eli Lilly has taken the lead in market share with its Zepbound and Mounjaro injectables, while Novo Nordisk AS's launch of Wegovy tablets and higher-dose injectable versions is seen as a core initiative to regain market position.

The intensity of the competition has extended to the legal arena. On July 21, Novo Nordisk AS filed a lawsuit against Eli Lilly, alleging false advertising regarding Zepbound and Mounjaro; Eli Lilly has disputed these allegations.

In addition to disappointing sales data, Novo Nordisk AS has recently faced other challenges. The company previously announced that an experimental injectable aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk failed to meet expectations in late-stage clinical trials, a news item that wiped out all of Novo Nordisk AS's year-to-date stock gains.

The convergence of multiple adverse factors has placed greater pressure on the Danish pharmaceutical company during a critical phase of its battle with Eli Lilly for dominance in the GLP-1 market.