ETF 日报 (08.06) 丨 “小非农” 爆冷不及市场预期，黄金 ETF 再度上扬 煤炭红利风格回归

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline today, with all three major indices retreating. The "little non-farm" data came in below market expectations, and the easing of geopolitical tensions weakened the logic for interest rate hikes, leading to a rise in gold ETFs; the return of dividend styles and strong coal price expectations resulted in impressive performance from coal ETFs. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.49% to 25,530.28 points, with a total turnover of HKD 255.227 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.28% to 4,820.78 points. In terms of Hong Kong stock ETFs, among the top products by size, the Tracker Fund (02800) fell 1.52% to HKD 26; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) decreased 1.13% to HKD 87.54; and the Southern Double Long Hang Seng Tech (07226) dropped 4.73% to HKD 3.586.

Industry Performance

1. The "little non-farm" data came in below market expectations, and the easing of geopolitical tensions weakened the logic for interest rate hikes, leading to a rise in gold ETFs. By the close, Southern Double Long Gold (07299) rose 4.36% to HKD 22.96; the Gold Mining ETF - E Fund (02824) increased 2.96% to HKD 10.42; and the Value Gold ETF (03081) gained 2.39% to HKD 20.16.

The U.S. July ADP "little non-farm" data showed only an increase of 44,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling in employment that begins to alleviate the Federal Reserve's pressure for interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about energy inflation, with multiple factors driving a strong rebound in international gold prices, pushing spot gold back above USD 4,200 per ounce and briefly breaking through the USD 4,300 per ounce mark. Huachuang Securities believes that the weakening of short-term inflation and employment data will cool interest rate hike expectations, providing a repair window for gold, and attention should be sustained on the U.S. non-farm data on the 7th and CPI data on the 12th for further validation of employment and inflation.

2. The return of dividend styles and strong coal price expectations led to impressive performance from coal ETFs. By the close, the Guotai Coal ETF (515220.SH) rose 5.88% to RMB 1.243; the Energy ETF - Huatai-PineBridge (159930.SZ) increased 2.69% to RMB 1.68; and the Dividend State-Owned Enterprises ETF - Guotai (510720.SH) gained 2.57% to RMB 1.038.

On August 5th, the CCI index for thermal coal was raised across the board, with the 5500 kcal reporting RMB 839 per ton, an increase of RMB 5 per ton. As the country enters the latter half of the deep dog days of summer, high temperatures may gradually move north, with rising temperatures in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai maintaining high daily consumption at power plants. The peak summer demand continues to be released, while supply-side safety inspections remain stringent, limiting production releases. There has been a significant reduction in inventory at ports around the Bohai Sea and coastal power plants, leading to heightened expectations for rising coal prices. Xinda Securities states that currently, the coal sector remains characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividends, with the industry still exhibiting high prosperity, long cycles, and high barriers to entry. The coal sector's downward adjustments are supported by high dividend safety margins, while upward elasticity is catalyzed by subsequent expectations for rising coal prices, maintaining a bullish outlook on the coal sector.

Institutional Views

CITIC Construction Investment believes that after experiencing a concentrated downward adjustment in profit forecasts for the internet, automotive, and consumer technology sectors in the first half of the year, the market has adequately priced in negative factors. Recently, the pace of profit downgrades in Hong Kong stocks has significantly slowed, and signs of marginal stabilization are sufficient to drive a rapid recovery of undervalued assets. Looking ahead, whether Hong Kong stocks can achieve a transition from "oversold rebound" to "long-term bull reversal" requires overcoming two major thresholds: "whether corporate profits can achieve substantial elastic recovery" and "whether dollar liquidity and chip structure can improve significantly."

CITIC Construction Investment points out that "in August, industry allocation should adopt a barbell structure of 'defensive bottom position + supply constraint price increase + core technology repair'." In July, the market shifted violently from high-crowded growth to low-valued value, but the adjustment in the technology sector is more due to loosening chips and deleveraging, which does not mean a complete reversal of the AI industry trend. In terms of allocation, priority should be given to shipbuilding and non-ferrous sectors that are jointly verified by prosperity, supply and demand, and prices. AI hardware can recover from underweight to neutral, focusing on high-certainty areas such as optical modules and AI servers, and waiting for mid-term report orders, cash flow, and stock price stabilization before gradually increasing positions. Strong sectors in July such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, and food and beverages should not be chased high; instead, upstream resources and quality consumer leaders should be selectively chosen.

ETF Trends

The Aerospace ETF Southern (158009.SZ) closed flat on its first day of listing, reporting 1.017 yuan with a transaction volume of 126 million yuan; the fund tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Industry Index, mainly covering related targets in the aerospace industry chain