ETF Daily (08.11) | Negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz between the U.S. and Iran continue, oil and gas ETFs surge while the gold sector collectively retreats

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks collectively fell today, with the Hang Seng Tech Index performing the worst. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz are still ongoing, leading to a surge in oil and gas ETFs; Federal Reserve officials have released hawkish statements, and expectations regarding the geopolitical situation are fluctuating, causing gold ETFs to collectively decline. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1%, closing at 25,652.82 points, with a total turnover of HKD 210.942 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.93%, closing at 4,824.42 points. In terms of Hong Kong stock ETFs, among the products ranked by size, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed down 1.06% at HKD 26.14; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) closed down 1.04% at HKD 87.78; the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (03466) closed down 0.55% at HKD 19.81.

Industry Performance

1. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz are still ongoing, leading to a surge in oil and gas ETFs. By the close, the S&P Oil & Gas ETF from Invesco (513350.SH) rose by 6.82%, closing at CNY 1.268; the S&P Oil & Gas ETF from Harvest (159518.SZ) rose by 6.06%, closing at CNY 1.191; the F Three Star Crude Oil Futures (03175) rose by 6.59%, closing at HKD 10.27.

The reopening of negotiations in the U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz has hit a deadlock, with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to rise, and Brent crude oil standing above USD 88 per barrel. On the supply side, U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, further exacerbating market concerns about tightening supply. Ping An Securities believes that although negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have resumed, geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, but the game over "control of the Strait of Hormuz" and "Iran's denuclearization" is still ongoing. Currently, the volume of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below pre-war levels, coupled with the fact that the Northern Hemisphere is still in a peak travel season, gasoline and aviation fuel demand remains resilient, and U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically low levels, providing strong support for Brent oil prices in the short term.

2. Federal Reserve officials have released hawkish statements, and expectations regarding the geopolitical situation are fluctuating, causing gold ETFs to collectively decline. By the close, the Gold Stock ETF from Yongying (517520.SH) fell by 5.94%, closing at CNY 2.044; the Gold Stock ETF from Cathay (517400.SH) fell by 5.68%, closing at CNY 1.612; the Gold Stock ETF from Huaan (159321.SZ) fell by 5.53%, closing at CNY 1.573.

On August 10 local time, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester stated that current inflation has not yet returned to target levels, and the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates multiple times. Industry insiders believe that three Federal Reserve officials still support interest rate hikes, with significant internal disagreements. The market is focused on the U.S. CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday, which will determine whether gold prices continue to rise to 4,500 or face downward pressure. Dongfang Securities pointed out that the U.S. dollar index and non-farm data are both loosening downward, indicating that a temporary bottom for gold prices has emerged, with the focus shifting to the release of inflation data. In the Middle East, short-term signals of easing geopolitical conflicts are being priced in by the market; even if the situation fluctuates in the short term, the most pessimistic concerns about interest rate hikes have passed, maintaining the view of a fluctuating recovery in gold prices in August

Institutional Views

CICC believes that the "opposite" of the extreme K-shaped differentiation dominated by AI in the first half of 2026 is the weakness of Hong Kong stocks and consumption. Of course, due to composition issues, the broad-based index of Hong Kong stocks can be viewed as a "large-scale consumption" index. Conversely, when technology began to fluctuate in July, Hong Kong stocks and the Hang Seng TECH Index experienced a rebound, much like the two ends of a "seesaw." CICC continues to emphasize that capital rebalancing and low valuations can only support a phase of rebound; it remains a "odds" mentality. To achieve a sustained comprehensive market in the medium to long term, it is still necessary for the "924 moment" fiscal policy to focus on household consumption or for the "DeepSeek moment" internet leaders to achieve breakthroughs