U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, NVIDIA Teams Up with Wall Street to Leverage $500 Billion, Yen Approaches 160 Again

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of August 11 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.33%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.03%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.06%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.31%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.12%, priced at $82.23 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.05%, priced at $87.68 per barrel. Reports indicate that Pakistan has stated that signals regarding the U.S. and Iran suggest that both sides are "close to reaching some arrangement," and the situation is moving towards a peaceful direction. Meanwhile, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency, Pakistan's Interior Minister has arrived in Tehran for talks.

Market News

The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September to address inflation risks. According to informed sources, after raising interest rates in June, the Bank of Japan may consider another rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address the rising inflation risks. Influenced by the rapid growth in demand related to artificial intelligence, significant depreciation of the yen, and rising oil prices, Japanese prices may rise further. Previously, many financial market participants had anticipated that the Bank of Japan would raise rates approximately every six months. However, according to the summary of meeting opinions released on Monday, some policy committee members at the Bank of Japan's latest policy-making meeting held on July 30-31 have indicated that the pace of interest rate hikes should be accelerated. One member stated, "The speed of policy rate increases may exceed market expectations," while another member noted that the Bank of Japan needs to "accelerate the pace of adjustment in monetary easing."

Wiping out half of the intervention gains! The yen approaches 160 again, and Secretary Yellen says "at all costs," but ammunition is limited. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Yellen suggested an unlimited approach to help Japan save the yen, a statement that may raise doubts among market participants regarding the actual firepower available. On Monday, the yen fell by as much as 1%, erasing half of the gains from the first joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan since 1998. After the intervention on July 31, the yen had briefly approached 155 yen per dollar, but has now fallen below the 159 mark. As of the time of writing, the USD/JPY exchange rate hovers around 159 After that unusual action, Bessent stated, "We will support them at all costs to help the U.S. economy, U.S. taxpayers, and stabilize the global economy." The problem is that, regarding the ammunition for currency intervention, Bessent seems limited by its main special tool—the foreign exchange stabilization fund, which is insufficient at less than $220 billion. In comparison, Japan reportedly used $53 billion for yen operations just on July 30 (the day before the U.S.-Japan coordinated action). "The U.S. can influence public opinion through coordinated intervention with Japan, but cannot change the fundamental facts," said Nathan Tuft, senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management. As for the capabilities of U.S. authorities, he stated, "They have substantial financial resources, but they are not unlimited."

Trump's intensive statements cover control of the Strait of Hormuz, strategy towards Iran, and communication with the Federal Reserve, intertwining Middle Eastern situations with domestic and foreign affairs. On Tuesday, the U.S. President made intensive statements on multiple issues, reiterating U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that it has cleared mines laid by Iran in this strategic waterway, and clearly stating that there are three strategic options regarding Iran: monitoring its deteriorating situation, implementing severe strikes, and maintaining ongoing economic pressure, emphasizing that the U.S. controls a large amount of Iranian funds and assets. In response to speculation about the prospects of U.S.-Iran negotiations, Trump also made compensation demands to Iran, covering casualties in various conflicts and the families of protesters suppressed over the past 50 years, and has instructed U.S. representatives to formally push for these claims in all future negotiations, which stands in stark contrast to Iran's previous compensation claims. Domestically, Trump clarified that there has only been one brief conversation between him and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller since his appointment, denying claims of frequent communication, coinciding with the market's heightened sensitivity to the independence and policy direction of the Federal Reserve, attempting to downplay the impression of direct White House interference in central bank decisions. Regarding security and immigration issues, Trump revealed that after receiving credible assassination threats following the NATO summit in early July, he secretly left Turkey on Air Force C-32A instead of using the old aircraft "Air Force One," while the government has announced the revocation of over 175,000 foreign citizen visas due to criminal activities, violations, and violent rhetoric against U.S. citizens. Additionally, Trump extended the shipping exemption period under the Jones Act by 90 days but narrowed its application to energy commodities and fertilizers, and publicly supported the current FIFA president Infantino regarding personnel arrangements, stating that he successfully hosted the most successful World Cup in history, and replacing him would be a huge mistake.

The era of "chip inflation" has begun, with AI demand driving memory prices skyrocketing, making computers and phones even more expensive. The explosive growth in demand for artificial intelligence is driving storage chip prices to soar, a phenomenon referred to by institutions as "chip inflation," which has formed a structural trend with no signs of relief in the short term. Data shows that the producer price index for electronic components and accessories rose nearly 30% year-on-year in June, marking the largest annual increase since records began in 1966, easily surpassing peak levels during the early personal computer era in 1980 and the supply crisis during the pandemic. Major tech companies are signing multi-year supply agreements with suppliers to secure computing power resources, preemptively seizing memory capacity, leading traditional PC and smartphone manufacturers to compete for supplies in an increasingly shrinking remaining supply pool, with cost pressures subsequently transmitted downstream There are reports that a leading smartphone manufacturer is considering introducing new memory chip suppliers to cope with soaring costs, but this requires regulatory approval, reflecting the real constraints under the current supply chain landscape. The trend of memory prices dropping by about 90% every five years over the past sixty years is no longer applicable in the AI economy, as memory prices have surged more than five times in the past year, marking a complete reversal of the decades-long downward trend, putting pressure on the procurement costs of cloud services, terminal devices, and even enterprise hardware. Market expectations are changing, shifting from initial concerns that companies would cut tech spending due to rising costs to the current situation where companies are continuously increasing investments to avoid future procurement gaps, with analysts describing this mindset as "fear of missing out on purchases." The U.S. CPI data to be released on Wednesday is highly anticipated; institutions estimate that the impact of this round of chip price increases on overall CPI may be relatively limited, but specific categories like personal computers may face a year-on-year price increase of about 10%, with end consumers feeling the impact more directly.

It is reported that OpenAI is repurchasing $7 billion in employee shares in preparation for a potential IPO, maintaining a valuation of $852 billion. According to a source familiar with the matter, OpenAI has completed a transaction to help employees sell approximately $7 billion worth of company shares, preparing for a possible initial public offering (IPO). Two sources indicated that in this buyback transaction, OpenAI is repurchasing shares from current and former employees, rather than seeking external investors as in the past—previously, OpenAI invited investors including Thrive Capital and SoftBank Group to purchase shares held by employees. The sources stated that this transaction values the startup at $852 billion, consistent with its valuation during the most recent funding round.

Anthropic meets with investors on the eve of its IPO, facing multiple challenges while downplaying competitive impacts. Reports indicate that AI giant Anthropic (valued at $965 billion) is meeting with potential investors to boost market confidence ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history. The company plans to go public in September or early October, but specific pricing and timing have not yet been announced. Currently, Anthropic faces a series of new challenges, including the proliferation of low-cost AI systems, tensions with the Trump administration, and opposition to data center construction across the U.S. In recent weeks, during pre-IPO meetings, investors have raised concerns about the impact of these factors on the company's growth, reflecting significant uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the AI race and financial stability. Company executives downplayed the competitive threat posed by low-cost AI systems during the meetings, emphasizing a strong focus on providing cutting-edge AI models. Additionally, Anthropic revealed to some investors plans to further expand into healthcare and biological AI applications.

Q2 global gas turbine orders soar 71% to a record high! Major banks declare that the gas turbine industry has entered a "super cycle," with leading manufacturers scheduling production until 2030. JPMorgan stated that driven by a significant increase in electricity demand, global gas turbine orders reached a historic high in the April to June quarter. JPMorgan analysts, including Phil Bler, reported in a document released on Monday that global gas turbine orders in the second quarter of this year reached approximately 38 gigawatts (GW), a 29% increase from the first quarter and a 71% increase from the same period last year Analysts point out that the United States remains the largest market, accounting for nearly half of the order share. According to JP Morgan data, Siemens Energy AG received the largest order size in the second quarter, approximately 12.5 gigawatts; followed by General Electric Co. with an order size of 11.3 gigawatts; Mitsubishi Power Ltd. ranked third with an order size of 5.3 gigawatts. The analysts added that demand growth is driving up costs. A combined cycle gas turbine scheduled for delivery in 2031 will cost three times that of the units delivered last year.

Individual Stock News

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) partners with six Wall Street giants, aiming to raise over $500 billion to create a new asset class for AI chips. NVIDIA announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Apollo Global Management (APO.US), Blackstone Group (BX.US), BlackRock (BLK.US), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and KKR (KKR.US) to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital to fund the construction of data centers and procurement of NVIDIA hardware for large-scale enterprises, AI labs, and various clients. The plan aims to transform AI chips and computing power infrastructure into collateralizable asset classes similar to commercial real estate and toll roads, utilizing institutional credit, insurance funds, and private capital to finance clients without occupying their own balance sheets. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated, "This is indeed the first time technology chips have become an investable asset class," as these assets possess profitability, longevity, interchangeability, and flexibility. Wall Street giants believe that computing power has evolved into a key asset class driving global economic growth. Blackstone President Gray stated that AI computing power will be viewed as "financable assets," with demand far exceeding supply; BlackRock CEO Fink compared the project to the birth of mortgage-backed securities in the 1970s, calling it "the next future of financial engineering." This plan comes after global market turbulence in July, when investors questioned whether tech giants' AI investments could yield returns, and rating agencies like Moody's warned that unprecedented capital expenditures were squeezing free cash flow and increasing debt burdens. NVIDIA's move challenges the traditional perception of GPUs as rapidly depreciating hardware, attempting to transform them into long-term infrastructure recognized by banks. However, skeptics may question whether AI chips can maintain their value with the launch of new-generation chips. BlackRock CEO Fink emphasized that some funds have already been raised and need to be deployed quickly to ensure the U.S. maintains its global leadership in AI.

SK Hynix (SKHY.US) plans to increase NAND capacity in China by 50%. Reports indicate that SK Hynix's NAND subsidiary Solidigm has restarted the construction of the second-phase factory at its NAND flash production base in Dalian, China, in the first half of this year. Once operational, SK Hynix's local capacity will expand by approximately 50%. The factory began construction four years ago but was halted for an extended period due to a downturn in the memory market. SK Hynix plans to introduce semiconductor production equipment as early as November, with formal production expected in the first half of next year It is reported that the new production line has a wafer production capacity of about 50,000 pieces per month. Due to the surge in demand for enterprise-level solid-state drives driven by the proliferation of artificial intelligence data centers, NAND prices have increased nearly tenfold within a year.

From $15 billion to $20 billion! Intel (INTC.US) plans to increase its fundraising scale, as the equity financing wave in the AI era surges. According to insiders, Intel is planning to expand its stock offering scale, raising the target fundraising amount from the previously announced $15 billion to about $20 billion, an increase of one-third. Insiders expect the offering to be priced at around $95 per share or higher. This price represents a discount of about 6.5% compared to last Friday's closing price. One insider indicated that if the overallotment option is exercised, the total amount raised could exceed $20 billion. Insiders also revealed that this stock sale has attracted over $100 billion in subscription demand, demonstrating strong market interest in Intel's financing plan. Discussions are still ongoing, and details including the offering size and price may still change. An Intel spokesperson declined to comment.

Stock price skyrockets! Fermi (FRMI.US) secures its first AI data center lease, locking in $6.5 billion for a 15-year term. On August 10, Fermi, focused on the development of AI hyperscale data centers, announced that its Project Matador site in Carson County, Texas, has signed its first binding customer lease with AI cloud provider TensorWave. Following this news, Fermi's stock price surged 16% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. According to a statement released by Fermi, the lease was signed by Fermi's subsidiary Fermi Campus 1 LLC and TensorWave's subsidiary TensorWave TEX1, LLC. The initial phase covers a facility supported by a total power capacity of 222 megawatts, expected to generate approximately $6.5 billion in total contract revenue over the initial 15-year term. The lease includes rights for the expansion of two additional data centers, and if fully exercised, the collaboration will expand to over 650 megawatts in three phases. The facility is expected to begin phased delivery in the second half of 2027. Once fully delivered, it is expected to support tens of thousands of next-generation AMD Instinct GPUs for large-scale AI training and inference. The lease also includes two five-year renewal options, potentially extending the lease term to 25 years.

Anthropic signs a $9.1 billion computing power deal with mining company Riot (RIOT.US). Insiders revealed that AI company Anthropic PBC has reached an agreement worth approximately $9.1 billion with Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms, which has recently begun providing AI data center computing power. This deal highlights that Anthropic (which owns the AI model Claude) is striving to secure sufficient computing power to meet the growing demands of its clients. Meanwhile, Riot announced its Q2 2026 financial report after the market closed on Monday, with revenue exceeding expectations, but losses were greater than the market anticipated. Earlier on Monday, Riot disclosed that it had signed a 20-year power supply agreement to provide 191 megawatts (MW) of power capacity from its facility in Rockdale, Texas—enough to power approximately 143,000 households—to a "leading frontier AI company." According to informed sources, the company in question is Anthropic. Boosted by this news, Riot's stock price surged 16% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Amkor Technology (AMKR.US) plans to sell equity in its China business, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.5 billion. According to informed sources, global outsourcing semiconductor packaging and testing (OSAT) giant Amkor Technology is considering strategic adjustments to its China operations, including options for selling part of its equity. The company, headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, has hired advisory firms to assist in preparing for the spin-off of this business unit and to gauge preliminary interest from potential buyers. It is reported that Amkor Technology may retain a minority stake in the business, with the overall valuation of its China operations estimated between $1 billion and $1.5 billion.

Morgan Stanley (MS.US) launches the U.S. Innovation Infrastructure Initiative, aiming to leverage $1.5 trillion in capital. Morgan Stanley announced the launch of the "U.S. Innovation Infrastructure Initiative," committing to facilitate approximately $1.5 trillion in financing, capital raising, and related investment activities over the next decade, focusing on strategic industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and energy infrastructure. On August 10, Morgan Stanley announced that as part of this new initiative, it will assist companies with capital raising, financing, consulting, and other related activities over the next decade. The initiative revolves around three core areas: first, innovation platforms and strategic industries, covering artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and cybersecurity; second, infrastructure construction serving the innovation economy; and third, capital supply for entrepreneurs and high-growth companies.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:15: U.S. ADP weekly employment change for the week ending July 25.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. existing home sales annualized total for July.

Beijing time the next day 00:00: EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Beijing time the next day 04:30: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 7.

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), Lumentum (LITE.US).

Wednesday pre-market: Nebius Group (NBIS.US)