What Is the Actual Oil Flow Through the Strait of Hormuz? U.S. Department of Energy and Market Tracking Data Differ by Nearly Double

A data dispute over oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is erupting between the U.S. Secretary of Energy and Wall Street analysts, with estimates differing by nearly double, plunging the global oil market into informational chaos. Analysts believe this controversy is not just about the numbers themselves but directly affects the market's judgment on the global supply gap and whether oil prices can remain stable at current levels.

On August 17, CNN reported that U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright publicly stated last week that the seven-day average of daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to 9 million barrels, adding that the total volume of oil flowing out of the Arabian Gulf on August 8 alone exceeded 20 million barrels, matching pre-war levels. He emphasized that the U.S. military is conducting escort operations in the strait, and based on this, the Department of Energy possesses the "highest quality available data." However, data from third-party vessel tracking agencies such as Kpler and Windward Intelligence shows that the current daily transport volume of tankers passing through the strait is only about 4 million barrels. Adding approximately 7 million barrels from alternative routes such as pipelines, the total outflow is around 11 to 12 million barrels, far lower than the Department of Energy's figures.

The impact of this data gap on the market cannot be ignored. Global crude oil inventories have cumulatively decreased by 1.5 to 1.9 billion barrels since the outbreak of the war, and the oil market remains in a state of persistent supply deficit. If the Department of Energy's data is accurate, previous market concerns about supply shortages may have been overstated; if the tracking data is more accurate, the "tipping point" for global inventory depletion will arrive sooner than market expectations.

Data Gap: 9 Million Barrels vs. 4 Million Barrels

The core of the controversy lies in the huge disparity between the two data systems.

The 9 million barrel daily flow cited by Wright comes from real-time monitoring of vessels transiting the strait by the U.S. military. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy stated, "In coordination with the U.S. military, the Department of Energy maintains the highest quality available data related to oil and petroleum product outflows from the Arabian Gulf."

In contrast, Kpler data, which Wall Street analysts have long relied upon, presents a completely different picture. Kpler operates 13,000 proprietary receivers across 190 countries, tracks 350,000 vessels, updates location information every five minutes, and operates a low-earth orbit satellite network. Matt Smith, Director of Commodities Research at the firm, stated bluntly:

"The gap between the data we observe and the figures he cites is irreconcilable."

On the day Wright claimed that the single-day outflow exceeded 20 million barrels on August 8, data from both Kpler and Windward Intelligence showed that the total number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that day was only about five. Before the war, more than 100 vessels transited daily. "With such a small number of vessels, it is simply impossible to support that scale of oil flow," analysts pointed out.

Hamad Hussain, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, stated:

"It is becoming increasingly difficult to determine exactly how much oil is leaving the Gulf. Contradictory statements from U.S. and Iranian officials are muddying the waters."

Shadow Fleet: Data Blind Spots May Be Larger Than Imagined

Although tracking agencies stand by their data, analysts also acknowledge that the current market information landscape may have significant blind spots.

In recent weeks, attacks by Iran on transiting vessels have escalated significantly, and actions by its Houthi allies in the Red Sea have also become more aggressive. This has forced an increasing number of tankers to do everything possible to hide their locations and cargo information when passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to evade attacks.

Kpler data shows that in recent weeks, about half of the transit flow through the Strait of Hormuz tracked by them belonged to "shadow transits"—covert voyages with disabled transponders—whereas this proportion was only about one-eighth a month ago.

Windward Intelligence also uses satellite imagery and artificial intelligence technology to track vessels with disabled transponders, but the Department of Energy believes that even so, a considerable number of vessels remain undetected.

Hussain believes that when these slow-moving tankers leave the danger zone and reactivate their transponders, the market may realize that the volume of oil previously flowing out of the region far exceeded earlier estimates. This means that the current assessment of supply shortages may be overstated.

Wall Street: From Skepticism to "Trust but Verify"

Amidst this data controversy, Wall Street's stance is undergoing a subtle shift.

Previously, analysts generally maintained a reserved attitude toward the Trump administration's statements. Trump repeatedly claimed that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz and frequently hinted that an agreement with Iran was imminent; Wright also repeatedly stated that the U.S. was ensuring adequate oil supplies. These statements were viewed by the market as "verbal intervention" to suppress oil prices and were not incorporated into mainstream analytical frameworks.

However, this attitude is softening. Natasha Kaneva, Global Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, stated in June this year that relatively low oil prices prompted her to re-examine the actual oil outflow from the Persian Gulf, admitting the possibility that a large amount of uncounted "secret" oil is flowing out via tankers with disabled transponders. JPMorgan lists Kpler shipping data as one of several sources for its supply and demand estimates.

Dan Pickering, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pickering Energy Partners, expressed openness to the Department of Energy's figures. "The U.S. is helping a considerable amount of oil pass through the strait, and Iran is not intercepting all vessels," he said. "In an environment where the government has accumulated significant skepticism, a 'trust but verify' attitude might be the best option available. What he says could certainly be correct."

Inventory Tipping Point: The Real Market Risk

Regardless of how the data dispute is ultimately resolved, analysts point out that the precise flow figures through the Strait of Hormuz have a far less direct impact on oil prices than their long-term significance for market stability.

Since the outbreak of the war, global crude oil inventories have cumulatively decreased by 1.5 to 1.9 billion barrels (depending on the estimation system used). The massive crude oil reserves accumulated before the war have buffered the impact of the sudden drop in supply to some extent, avoiding a larger-scale market crisis.

Currently, the oil market remains in a state of persistent supply deficit. The more oil flows out of the strait, the longer the market can delay the "tipping point" of inventory depletion—the moment when reserves are insufficient to meet global demand.

"The market cannot rely on drawing down inventories forever," Pickering warned. "Sooner or later, reserves will run dry."

This means that if the tracking agencies' data is closer to reality, the supply expectations implied by current oil prices may be too optimistic, and the downside risks facing the market will be far more severe than reflected by prices.