The US dollar fell to a three-month low as investors reduced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes

智通財經
2026.08.17 10:10
美元跌至三個月低點，之前一系列疲軟的美國經濟數據導致投資者降低了對美聯儲進一步加息的預期。美元即期指數連續第三個交易日下跌，觸及 5 月 15 日以來的最低水平。目前市場反映的美聯儲下月加息概率降至三分之一，低於 7 月末的 75% 左右。之前美國公佈的 7 月就業數據不佳，通脹温和，零售銷售數據則意外疲軟。而本週鮮有重大數據能夠引發美元大幅突破，週五的全球採購經理人指數或許是下一個實質性考驗所在。Brown Brothers Harriman 市場戰略全球主管 Elias Haddad 稱，如果美國經濟數據改善，鞏固美國的增長優勢，則可能提振美元。 然而，市場目前預期本輪緊縮週期裏的進一步加息幅度僅為 36 個基點左右，期權市場顯示美元短期內將面臨更大壓力。1 個月期期權自 2 月底以來首次轉為看空美元，更長期限的期權仍然看多。
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