How Aggressive Is Anthropic's IPO Valuation? Wall Street Bets on Revenue Soaring to $200 Billion by 2028
As Anthropic prepares for its initial public offering, Wall Street is using its projected 2028 revenue (approximately $200 billion) as the core pricing anchor, rather than current performance. The company's annualized revenue growth is rapid, but massive AI investments mean profitability remains distant. The market is benchmarking against high-growth companies like Palantir and SpaceX, betting that future scale effects will translate into profits. However, whether this high-valuation logic can sustain itself remains to be tested by the market
Anthropic is preparing for its initial public offering, and its valuation method is challenging traditional frameworks—Wall Street is looking two years ahead, using the company's expected 2028 revenue as the pricing anchor.
According to reports citing two knowledgeable sources, Anthropic internally projects 2028 revenue to reach approximately $190 billion to $200 billion, far higher than the $47 billion annualized revenue run rate announced in May of this year. Four other sources revealed that bankers and investors are valuing Anthropic using forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiples.
For high-growth software companies, valuing based on future revenue is not new, but directly using revenue two years out as the core pricing benchmark is relatively rare. This approach reflects both the astonishing speed of Anthropic's business expansion and highlights the difficulty in finding a reference frame for reasonably valuing the company amid continued high spending on AI infrastructure.
In other words, investors are not betting on how much money Anthropic can make today, but on whether it can rapidly expand its revenue scale over the next two years and ultimately deliver on scale effects.
Revenue Soars, Profitability Still on the Horizon
Anthropic's financial trajectory already shows an extremely high growth slope.
According to company disclosures, its annualized revenue run rate was approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 and had risen to over $47 billion by May of this year. The company expects revenue in the second quarter of 2026 to reach at least $10.9 billion, more than doubling from the previous quarter, and aims to achieve its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million.
Anthropic also stated that over the three years leading up to early 2026, the company's annualized revenue run rate grew by more than 10 times each year.
However, behind this rapid expansion, the company still needs to bear huge costs for computing power and R&D. Currently, continuous investment is required for GPUs and other computing resources, model training, inference, and talent recruitment, meaning that current EBITDA does not fully reflect future profitability.
The current market valuation logic is that as revenue scale expands, the proportion of infrastructure and personnel costs is expected to decrease, while training and inference efficiency continues to improve, ultimately driving margin improvement. In other words, Anthropic is exchanging today's high investments for larger future revenue scale and profit margins.
Palantir, Cloudflare, and SpaceX Serve as Valuation Benchmarks
Ahead of Anthropic's Analyst Day, the market is also searching for suitable comparable companies.
According to reports citing knowledgeable sources, cloud infrastructure company Cloudflare, enterprise software company Palantir, and SpaceX have all been included in the valuation reference scope.
According to LSEG data, Palantir currently trades at a valuation multiple of approximately 53 times its expected revenue for this year, making it one of the most highly valued stocks on Wall Street; SpaceX and Cloudflare both trade at multiples of approximately 41.6 times their expected 2026 revenue.
These three companies provide different valuation references: Palantir represents high-growth software companies with AI exposure; Cloudflare represents high-growth software and infrastructure enterprises; SpaceX provides a precedent for valuation relying more on future growth expectations than current financial performance.
There have been similar cases previously. Sources said that supporters of Cerebras Systems cited 2028 revenue forecasts before its IPO earlier this year; before SpaceX went public in June with a record-breaking valuation, related forecasts even extended to 2029.
A $2 Trillion Valuation: What Is the Market Really Betting On?
As Anthropic's valuation continues to climb, debate over its valuation ceiling is intensifying.
David Merkel, head of investment firm Aleph Investments, stated that it is "possible" for Anthropic to achieve a $2 trillion valuation, but the key question is whether this valuation can be sustained. He believes investors must answer a core question: How much additional productivity gain can AI actually bring?
This may become the most important valuation test for Anthropic after its listing.
Currently, AI capital expenditure remains high, and the market has begun to re-examine whether massive infrastructure investments can ultimately translate into sustainable, scalable profitability. For Anthropic, the core task for the next two years is not only to push revenue toward $200 billion but also to prove that this round of revenue growth can ultimately translate into profits and cash flow.
If this logic holds, the high valuation anchored to 2028 revenue may be absorbed by the market; conversely, if revenue growth slows, or if AI infrastructure investments fail to translate into margin improvements, this "forward revenue valuation" framework could quickly face pressure.
