"Rising Agricultural Inflation" Approaching? Asian Rice Prices Soar to Nearly 15-Year High, Multiple Countries Halt Exports

Asian rice prices have soared to their highest level since 2008 as dry weather threatens Thai rice production and India restricts some exports, threatening food rations for billions of people across Asia and Africa. The risk of a global supply shortfall has raised concerns about rising rice prices. Thai rice prices have reached $648 per ton, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. The price of rice has risen by nearly 50 per cent since last year. Rice is indispensable to the daily diet of billions of people in Asia and Africa, and rising prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures and increase the cost of imports. Thailand, the second-largest rice exporter, is now encouraging farmers to switch to less water-intensive crops in response to dry weather. India, the world's No. 1 rice exporter, has ordered a ban on rice exports except steamed rice and bassam rice to stabilize domestic rice prices. India's domestic rice prices have reached multi-year highs in recent weeks as abnormal weather has affected production. **Both India and Thailand are major rice exporters, and global rice supplies face significant threats. *In addition to India, Russia and the United Arab Emirates also recently announced the suspension of rice exports. According to the US Department of Agriculture, India's rice exports will reach 22.5 million tons in 2022-2023, accounting for 40% of the global market. The agency expects global rice stocks to fall to 0.17042 billion tons, the lowest in recent years. At present, Asian rice prices have risen to their highest level since 2008, and the risk of a sustained rise in rice prices is rising as concerns about tight supply and demand grow. In addition to rice, food supplies such as wheat are also likely to be volatile. Wheat futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also hit their highest point since February. Rising global rice prices and tight wheat supplies are co-occurring, making it difficult to find cheap alternatives if both rice and wheat are in short supply * . In 2007-2008, the prices of major crops such as rice and wheat rose at the same time, triggering " agricultural inflation **" with high agricultural prices * * ". **Once agricultural inflation returns, it will have the greatest impact on emerging countries such as Africa, which are economically depressed and heavily dependent on imported food, as they may find it difficult to buy enough food due to insufficient foreign exchange reserves, leading to mass starvation. * *