Wallstreetcn
2023.08.18 22:49
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"The 'Anchor of Global Asset Pricing' flexes its muscles as both US stocks and bonds suffer this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experiences its worst weekly decline since March, while the S&P 500 continues its downward trend for the eighth consecutive month."

"The 'Anchor of Global Asset Pricing' did not exert its influence on Friday, and the US stock market struggled to rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average barely halted its three-week decline, marking the largest weekly drop in five months since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The NASDAQ Composite Index experienced its fourth consecutive weekly decline, setting a new record for the longest continuous decline in seven months. The S&P 500 index remained almost unchanged, recording the longest continuous decline in nearly six months. Tesla fell by 11% in a week. Chip stocks rebounded during intraday trading, with Nvidia bouncing back by 6% after a significant decline last week. Chinese concept stocks retreated, with NIO falling by over 7%, XPeng Motors dropping by over 5% after its earnings report, and JD.com declining by over 4%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond retreated, failing to approach the high levels seen since 2007, and continued to rise for the fourth consecutive week. After reaching a two-month high, the US dollar index reversed its gains but still recorded a five-week increase. The offshore renminbi initially rose by over 200 points but then declined. Crude oil rebounded for several days but still experienced a weekly decline of over 2%, marking the first cumulative decline in two months. Gold ended its nine-week decline, temporarily bidding farewell to its five-month low, but still recorded the largest weekly drop in nearly two months, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline."

Risk aversion heats up, investors rush into the bond market to hedge, European and American bond prices rebound, yields fall. Friday's "global asset pricing anchor" did not continue to take off, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are not close to 2007 highs, U.S. stocks struggled to rebound, but the week of U.S. stocks and bonds double-killed, the Dow fell a week for the worst since the collapse of Silicon Valley banks five months ago. The economic data released this week in Europe and the United States either reflect the strength of the economy or show the stickiness of high inflation, creating room for central banks to raise interest rates. The minutes of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting were hawkish, warning that the upside risks to inflation remained high and that further interest rate hikes could be raised, exacerbating concerns that major central banks would keep interest rates high for longer. U. S.-led U.S. and European government bond prices fell and yields rose, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields at or near multi-year highs. On Friday, the euro zone's July CPI growth slowed as expected, with core CPI flat and signs of core inflation peaking. European and American bond yields fell across the board, but the rise in U.S. bond yields hit risk assets throughout the week, led by yield-sensitive technology stocks under pressure, and European and American stock markets fell throughout the week. The market also pays attention to China's real estate industry, economic data and policy trends. Thursday's rally in Chinese assets failed to continue, following the market's cumulative decline.! Due to the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year has warmed up this week. The expectation of next year's interest rate cut has cooled down. The US dollar index soon turned down after hitting a new high in two months on Friday. However, this week's continuation of a month-long weekly rally reflects the market's increased bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for a longer and its concern about the economic situation in major economies. The offshore yuan, which rebounded sharply on Thursday, fell back in the session, rising more than 200 points and then losing 7.31 and falling more than 100 points. The yen broke away from a nine-month high against the dollar on Friday, but failed to recover the 145.00 of the mark that Japan fell through during its intervention in the foreign exchange market last September, and the yuan fell all week. Investors continue to be wary of the risk of Japanese government intervention. A variety of commodities were sold off this week. International crude oil continued to rebound on Friday, helped by the fall of the US dollar, and still fell for the first time in a single week since mid-June. According to the commentary, the pricing of U.S. bond yields reflects market expectations that the Fed's high interest rate environment will last longer, exerting a negative impact on oil market demand in the coming months and quarters, with economic data hitting the oil market mainly in the first half of the week and the minutes of the Fed's hawkish meeting in the second half. Among metals, supported by the fall in US dollar and US bond yields, gold rebounded slightly on Friday, temporarily stopping the longest consecutive decline in six years. However, the previous consecutive days of decline still hit the worst weekly performance since late June. Including the economic weather vane "Dr. Copper", a variety of industrial metals fell, just like last week, continuing to reflect the market's concern about the economic situation of Asian metal consuming countries. ## Nasdaq hits another seven-month longest consecutive decline week S & P's longest consecutive decline in nearly six months Zhou Yingweida rebounded 6% this week. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell lower. At the beginning of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 210 points, fell more than 0.6, the S & P 500 index fell 0.8, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell nearly 1.2 in early trading, and then all fell narrower. The Dow rose at the end of early trading and fell more than once in midday trading, but kept its gains in late trading. The S & P had a short-term turn up in midday and late trading, and the Nasdaq had a short-term turn up in late trading. In the end, only the Dow successfully rebounded among the three major indexes, ending three consecutive declines, the S & P almost closed flat, and the Nasdaq fell for four consecutive days. The Dow closed up 25.83 points, or 0.07 percent, at 34500.66 points, leaving Thursday's low since July 13. S & P closed down 0.01 percent at 4369.71 points, continuing to refresh its low since June 26. The Nasdaq closed down 0.2 percent at 13290.78 points, hitting its lowest level since June 9 for two consecutive days.! The S & P 500 failed to rebound on Friday and fell below the 50-day moving average on Tuesday. Since then, Russell, a small-cap stock index dominated by key technical value stocks, closed up 0.51 percent on 2000, bidding farewell to the low since July 6 set by four consecutive days of decline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.14 percent for four days, hitting its lowest level since June 26. All major U.S. stock indexes fell this week, closing below the 50-day moving average on Friday. The Standard and Poor's fell 2.11 percent, close to last week's biggest weekly decline since March 10, with the Nasdaq down 2.59 percent, the Nasdaq 100 down 2.22 percent and the Russell 2000 down 3.41 percent, all down three weeks in a row. Standard & Puter recorded the longest consecutive decline week since February 24. The Nasdaq fell for the first time in three weeks since December last year, and continued to record the longest consecutive decline week in more than seven months. The Dow fell 2.21 percent, its biggest weekly decline since the week of March 10, the week of the Silicon Valley bank collapse, wiping out last week's gains and falling in the second week of the last six weeks.! Among the major U.S. stock indexes this week, five of the major S & P 500 sectors did not close up on Friday. Google's communications service fell about 1%, far more than other sectors, non-essential consumer goods fell more than 0.3, finance and materials fell about 0.1, and medical care almost closed flat. Of the six sectors that closed up, energy, which benefited from the continued rebound in crude oil and rose alone on Thursday, rose more than 0.9 per cent, the best performance for the second day in a row, while the other sectors rose less than 0.4 per cent. These sectors have all fallen this week, with IT, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, down 0.8 per cent, while other sectors fell at least more than 1 per cent. Non-essential consumer goods fell more than 4 per cent, highlighting Tesla's impact, with interest-sensitive properties down more than 3 per cent, financials down 2.8 per cent, communications services, industrials, materials and essential consumer goods all down more than 2 per cent, and utilities down about 2 per cent. Most leading technology stocks continued to fall Friday. Tesla had fallen more than 2 percent at the beginning of the session, closing down 1.7 percent and falling six days in a row to its lowest level since June 2. This week, when China renewed its price war, shares fell about 11.2 percent, falling for three weeks in a row, far more than before, falling more than 4 percent a week in the first two weeks. FAANMG's six technology stocks narrowed their losses in the market, with a few turning higher. Google's parent company Alphabet, which closed up against the market on Thursday, closed down about 1.9 percent, falling back to its lowest level since July 25. Facebook's parent company Meta closed down nearly 0.7 percent, continuing to refresh its low since June 29, Amazon closed down nearly 0.6 percent, refreshing its low since August 3 for four consecutive days, Microsoft closed down more than 0.1 percent, continuing to refresh its low since May 24, both falling for four consecutive days; the early plate down more than 1 percent of the Apple midday turn up, closed up nearly 0.3 percent, not since May 25 low plate early had fallen more than 1 percent; Thursday fell three days to June 7 since the low of the Nai Frisbee early down more than 1 percent, closed up nearly 0.4 percent. The six tech stocks fell this week, with Meta falling more than 6 per cent, Naifei falling more than 4 per cent, Amazon down nearly 3.8 per cent, Apple down about 1.9 per cent, Microsoft down 1.4 per cent and Alphabet, which rose more than 1 per cent last week, down 1.6 per cent. Chip stocks overall midday turn up, in a four-day thrilling rebound, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX had fallen more than 1 percent at the beginning of the session, closing up about 0.5 percent, out of the low since June 5, but this week fell about 1.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. Nvidia fell about 3.9 per cent in early trading, closing down 0.1 per cent, but rose more than 7 per cent on Monday after news of a large number of chip purchases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which rose about 6 per cent this week and rebounded after falling about 8.6 per cent last week, the biggest weekly decline since September 2 last year. By the close, Applied Materials was up more than 3 percent, AMD was up nearly 1 percent, Ram Research was up nearly 0.7 percent, Intel was up about 0.5 percent, Texas Instruments was up 0.4 percent, and Qualcomm and Micron Technology were up slightly. AI concept stocks partially rebounded. C3.ai(AI) and Palantir(PLTR) closed up about 1.8 percent, while SoundHound.ai(SOUN) fell more than 1 percent, Adobe(ADBE) fell 0.7 percent and BigBear.ai(BBAI) closed flat. Thursday's overall reversal of the four-day decline in the popular Chinese stocks fell back. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down about 3.5 percent and fell nearly 7.1 percent this week. Among the individual stocks, Xiaopeng Auto fell more than 9% and closed down more than 5% at the beginning of the market after announcing the expansion of losses in the second quarter, the largest loss since listing and the lower-than-expected revenue guidance in the third quarter. At the close, bitcoin mining giant Jianan Technology fell more than 12%. Although EPS profit in the second quarter was higher than expected, Weipin still fell 8% and Weilai Auto fell more than 7%, aiqiyi fell nearly 7%, Station B fell more than 6%, Jingdong, Ideal Car and Weibo fell more than 4%, Baidu and Pinduo fell more than 3%, Alibaba and Tencent fell more than 2%, Daquan New Energy fell more than 1%, while Jingke Energy and Electronic Cigarette First Fog Core Technology rose more than 1%. The bank stock index fell, accelerating this week after Fitch warned on Monday that it might downgrade the ratings of many U.S. banks, including major banks, and fell for three consecutive weeks. The overall banking index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed down 0.4 percent, continuing to refresh its low level since July 10 and falling 5.6 percent this week. The regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index(KRX) continued to close slightly, breaking its low since July 17 for four consecutive days. The regional bank ETF SPDR S & P regional bank ETF(KRE) closed down less than 0.1 percent, breaking its low since July 17, it fell about 6.3 per cent and 6.4 per cent respectively this week.! Regional bank ETFs fell three weeks in a row Most of the big banks continued to fall, with Morgan Stanley closing down about 1 percent, Citi and Bank of America Goldman Sachs down less than 0.8 percent, while JPMorgan Chase closed up more than 0.2 percent and Wells Fargo up slightly. Among regional banks, Western Bank of Alaines (WAL) rose more than 1 percent, Western Pacific Union Bank (PACW) rose about 1 percent, Keycorp Bank (KEY) rose about 0.5 percent, while Zions Bancorporation(ZION) fell nearly 0.7 percent. Among the stocks that announced financial results, agricultural machinery giant Deere(DE) closed down 5.3 percent despite higher-than-expected revenue and profits in the third quarter. Estee Lauder (EL), a beauty giant with EPS losses expected by analysts in the first quarter, closed down 3.3 percent. Fourth quarter and full-year revenue guidelines are lower than expected electronic tester manufacturer Keysight Technologies(KEYS) It closed down 13.8 percent, while Ross Stores(ROST), a discount retailer with higher-than-expected earnings and revenue in the second quarter, closed up 5 percent. Among the volatile stocks, "Vietnam Tesla" VinFast(VFS) fell nearly 42% in early trading, once suspended trading due to a sharp drop, closing down 23%. After soaring more than 250 percent on the first day of listing in the United States through the merger of SPAC on Tuesday, it fell double digits for the third consecutive day. WeWork(WE), a shared office company that announced a reverse stock split plan, closed down 11.3 percent; after announcing that Hawaii plans to continue to exist as a financially strong utility company after the fire and does not plan to restructure, Hawaii Electric Power Company (HE) closed up 14.5 percent, ending an eight-day streak of declines and falling this week, mainly due to a nearly 34% drop on Monday after being downgraded to junk by S & P due to fire concerns. In European stocks, pan-European stock indexes fell for four consecutive days. The European Stoxx 600 Index refreshed its closing low since July 7, hitting a new low for more than a month for four consecutive days. Stock indexes of major European countries fell for two consecutive days. Among sectors, real estate fell more than 1.7 per cent, while mining stocks in China, a major consumer of metals, fell 1.5 per cent. Among the stocks, luxury goods giants LVMH and Kaiyun, which are heavy on the Chinese market, fell 0.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively, while HSBC, Europe's largest bank, and Prudential, the UK insurer, fell 1.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.! The Stoxx 600 index fell for the third week in a row this week, falling more than 2% in another week after Fitch unexpectedly downgraded the U.S. rating last week. National stock indexes all fell, with energy giants listed in the UK leading the decline by more than 3%, and German-Italian stocks fell for three weeks in a row, while French stocks, which rebounded last week, fell more than 2%. In all sectors, interest rate-sensitive real estate fell by more than 4%, while basic resources, which fell by more than 4% last week, fell by 3.8 this week, followed by oil and gas, which rose for two consecutive weeks, fell by more than 1% this week due to crude oil's turn down, and medical care, which rose by more than 3% last week, fell by more than 1% against the market.! ## Ten-year U.S. bond yields have not continued to fall close to their 2007 highs, still rising for four weeks. European bond prices have rebounded collectively, and yields have fallen, generally refreshing daily lows after the euro zone CPI was released. By the end of the bond market, the yield on Britain's 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 4.67 per cent, down 7 basis points in a day, away from the intraday high since October 2008 set by a 4.75 per cent rise on Thursday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year German government bond closed at 2.62 per cent, down 9 basis points in a day, not approaching the 2011 high set in March as it rose 2.71 per cent on Thursday. This week's sharp rise in British bond yields highlights the fact that expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England have risen sharply after the UK announced on Tuesday the highest wage growth rate in the second quarter. The yield on the 10-year British bond rose by about 15 basis points, rising more than 10 basis points for two consecutive weeks, rising for four weeks, while the yield on the 10-year German bond fell back to last Friday's level on Friday, stopping the three-week rise. After Wednesday's intraday rise broke 4.32 percent to refresh the high since October last year, the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield did not continue to measure the 2007 high set in October last year. On Thursday, European stocks broke 4.22 to refresh the daily low, falling about 6 basis points in the day. U.S. stocks rose before the session, once approaching 4.28 percent to refresh the daily high, wiping out the intraday decline, returning to below 4.27 percent after the opening, and breaking 4.23 percent in early trading, by the end of the bond market, 4.25 per cent, up about 2 basis points in the day, three days in a row, and this week, when only Tuesday fell back, yields rose about 10 basis points for four weeks in a row.! This week, the yield of long-term bonds rose significantly more than that of short-term bonds. The yield of 2-year U.S. bonds, which is more sensitive to the interest rate prospect, fell by more than 3 basis points in the day after falling by 4.90 percent in the European stock market. Before the U.S. stock market, it rose by about 2 basis points in the day, but it did not approach the high since July 6, which was close to 5.02 percent on Tuesday, as it was on Thursday, u.S. stocks at the beginning of the session to smooth the rise to decline, early trading had broken 4.91 percent, and then continued to rise, to the end of the bond market is about 4.94 percent, the day rose about 1 basis point, rebounded after falling back on Thursday, this week's cumulative rise of about 1 basis point, up for two weeks, the third week of the last six weeks to climb.! The 2-year U.S. bond yield was up 5.0 on Tuesday and Thursday, but it failed to stand above## U.S. dollar index, which hit a new two-month high and then turned down. It still rose for five consecutive weeks. The offshore RMB rose more than 200 points and then turned down. The ICE U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies such as the euro, maintained its decline for most time. The Asian market fell below 103.30 in early trading day, intraday down more than 0.3 percent, after the decline continued to narrow, U.S. stocks had turned up and close to 103.70, two consecutive days of refresh since June 13 intraday highs, up 0.1 percent in the day, but not to the U.S. stocks opened that turn down,. By the time U.S. stocks closed on Friday, the U.S. dollar index was below 103.50, falling more than 0.1 percent in the day. It fell back after roughly closing on Thursday for five consecutive days and rose nearly 0.6 percent this week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell nearly 0.1 percent, fell for two days after rising for five consecutive days, and continued to fall from the high since May 31, which was set on Wednesday, this week is up nearly 0.5 percent, and the dollar index is up for five weeks.! The Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index broke through the 200-day moving average, approaching the high level since early June. The offshore RMB (CNH) against the US dollar rose to a 7.2825-day high in early trading in Asia, up 216 points in the day. Both Asian and European stocks turned down in intraday trading. European stocks fell to a 7.3188-day low before trading, down 147 points in intraday trading, however, it did not approach the low level since November 3 last year, which fell to 7.3497 on Thursday. At 4: 59 Beijing time on August 19, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.3064 yuan against the U.S. dollar, down 23 points from late Thursday in new york. After a big rebound on Thursday and a rise of more than 300 points, it fell on the sixth day in the last seven trading days. It fell 463 points this week and fell for three consecutive weeks. The decline was significantly slower than last week's 722 points.! Offshore RMB fell against the US dollar in August, but RMB rebounded against other currencies. Among other non-US currencies, the Japanese yen, which rose on Thursday, continued to rebound against the US dollar, but failed to recover the threshold 145.00 for the Japanese government to intervene in the foreign exchange market last September for five consecutive days. After rising above 146.50 to 146.57 on Thursday and hitting a new high since November last year for four consecutive days, the US dollar was close to 145.10 against the US yen on Friday, the day fell about 0.5 percent, U.S. stocks closed down more than 0.3 percent, still up for three weeks; the euro against the U.S. dollar Asian market in early trading was close to the 1.0900 refresh day high, up about 0.2 percent in the day, the European stock market turned down, U.S. stocks before trading had fallen below 1.0850, refreshing the low since July 6, U.S. stocks turned up in early trading, closing roughly flat at the same time Thursday level; the pound fell below 1.2690 against the U.S. dollar before the U.S. stock market to refresh the daily low. It also turned up in the morning, fell back in the afternoon, and fell slightly at the close, not close to the low since the end of June set by the 1.2620 last Thursday. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below US $26000 in early Asian trading, some platforms fell below US $25000, a two-month low, and soon returned to US $26000. US stocks fell back below US $26000 in midday trading. US stocks hovered above US $26200 at the close, falling more than 5% in the last 24 hours and more than 10% in the last 7 days.! Bitcoin fell back to the level before BlackRock applied for bitcoin spot ETF listing in intraday trading on Friday## Crude oil rebounded in recent days and still fell more than 2% this week for the first time in two months. International crude oil futures fell more than once during trading sessions in Asia and Europe and the United States on Friday. When U.S. stocks hit a new low before trading, U.S. WTI crude oil fell by $80 to $79.59, down about 1% in a day, brent crude oil fell to $83.33, down more than 0.9 per cent in the day, while US stocks rose in early trading and expanded to more than 1 per cent in midday trading. In the end, crude oil closed up for two consecutive days. WTI September crude oil futures closed up 1.07 percent at $81.25 a barrel, while Brent October crude oil futures closed up 0.81 percent at $84.80 a barrel, and U.S. oil continued to break away from their respective Wednesday lows since August 2 and July 26, respectively. Due to the first three days of consecutive falls, crude oil failed to maintain the rally this week, U.S. oil tired down 2.33 percent, cloth oil tired down 2.32 percent, all in a row up seven weeks after falling back, June 16 for the first time since a single week tired down. Crude oil has been in decline last week, up less than 0.7 percent, far less than the previous three weeks, but last week was still the longest consecutive week of gains since the beginning of last year.! U.S. WTI crude oil fell for the first time in a single week since mid-June, but found some support for European natural gas to fall for three consecutive days around 80 U.S. dollars. Due to a big rebound on Tuesday, the whole week was able to rise for the third consecutive week, but the increase was far less than last week when workers in some LNG plants in Australia were obviously worried about the strike, which rose nearly 30% on Wednesday. British natural gas futures closed up 13.36 percent on Tuesday, down 2.2 percent at 90.89 pence/kilocalories, up 1.64 percent this week after rising 22.6 percent last week. Dutch natural gas futures, the benchmark TTF in continental Europe, closed up 12.72 percent on Tuesday, down 1.13 percent at 36.41 euros/megawatt-hour, up 3.14 percent this week after rising 22.3 percent last week. U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures continued to be mixed. NYMEX September gasoline futures, which fell back to their low level since August 7 on Thursday, closed up 0.05 to $2.8232 per gallon, down 4.78 percent this week after rebounding 6.5 percent last week. NYMEX September natural gas futures closed down 2.67 percent to $2.5510 million per million British thermal units, smoothing out the gains that ended two consecutive days on Thursday and refreshing their low level since August 2. This week they fell 8.14 percent and all gave up last week's gains, the third week in the last four weeks has fallen. ## Lun Copper Two Lianyang Still Fall Three Weeks in a Week Lun Tin Falls More than 4% Gold End Nine Continues Still Record the biggest weekly decline in nearly two months London base metal futures were mixed on Friday. Len copper and Len zinc rose for two days. Luntong closed above US $8200 and continued to break away from the low since the end of May set after falling through US $8200 on Wednesday. Luntong continued to bid farewell to the low since the beginning of June. Len lead rose three days to three weeks to high. However, Lunnickel, which ended its nine-day decline on Thursday, fell back and closed at $20000, not approaching the 13-month low set after falling through this mark on Wednesday. Lunxi, which stopped falling for seven days on Thursday, also fell back and began to approach the low since late May set on Wednesday. Len lead, which rebounded slightly on Thursday, fell back to a six-week low. Most of the basic metals fell this week. Lunxi led the decline by 4.5 per cent, with Luntong, which fell nearly 0.7 per cent, and Lunni, which fell more than 0.5 per cent, all falling for three weeks in a row. Len Zinc fell more than 4%, and Len Aluminum, which fell more than 1%, fell for two weeks. Len lead, which rose nearly 2%, stood out, ending a two-week streak of decline. New York gold futures maintained a rebound momentum throughout the day on Friday, ending the longest consecutive decline since March 10, 2017, which fell for nine consecutive days. U.S. stocks broke the day as high as $1926 in early trading, up nearly 0.6 percent in the day, and gave up most of their gains in midday trading. In the end, COMEX December gold futures, closed up 0.07 percent at $1916.5 an ounce, leaving the closing low since March 14, which was refreshed on Thursday. Gold fell about 1.55 per cent this cycle, continuing to record its biggest weekly decline since June 23, falling for four weeks in a row and falling more than 1 per cent a week in the last three weeks.! This week's golden day basically maintained the overnight strength, London set the price after the weakening pattern, spot golden week five heavy on the $1900 mark