中金：傳統思維或低估潛在增長

智通財經
2023.09.10 23:58
中金公司研報指出，中國處於金融週期下半場，經濟增速明顯放緩，市場對經濟增速的預測多次下調。這種情況下，投資者也非常關心中國潛在增速的演變。我們認為以通脹水平來衡量增長可持續性的傳統框架容易高估金融週期上半場的潛在增速，低估金融週期下半場的潛在增速，這意味着當下以及未來一段時間中國潛在增速可能比傳統框架推算的要高。要注意的是，潛在增速本身也是動態的，實際增速向潛在增速靠攏固然有賴於經濟自發調節，但政策的引導非常重要。具體而言，政策方向從金融往財政轉變是實現潛在增長的關鍵。
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