Huatai Securities: New shipbuilding prices continue to rise, firmly optimistic about the further upward trend of the shipping cycle.

According to the Dolphin Research report released by Huatai Securities, the shipbuilding industry's prosperity in August has been on the rise. The new ship price index has continuously reached a historical high since 2012, with a YoY growth of +7.05% and a MoM growth of +0.68%. In terms of volume, due to the delayed disclosure of some orders in China, the previous orders have been continuously revised upward. The YoY growth rate of global new orders received from January to August, measured in deadweight tons, has turned positive. Looking at different countries, China has been leading in new orders globally, taking the first market share since March 2023 for six consecutive months. The continuous reflection of new demand brought by the accelerated green transformation of shipping industry is being observed. Currently, the ship market is driven by the strong bidding capacity of comprehensive shipowners, and it is firmly believed that the ship cycle will further move upward.

Volume: From January to August, the global new ship orders reached 69.32 million deadweight tons, with a YoY growth of +0.8%.

In August 2023, the global monthly new ship orders reached 5.36 million deadweight tons, with a YoY decrease of -14.38% and a MoM decrease of -54.67%. The amount of new orders reached 5.4 billion US dollars, with a YoY decrease of -51.4% and a MoM decrease of -50.47%. From January to August 2023, the global new ship orders reached 69.32 million deadweight tons, with a YoY growth of +0.8%. The amount of new orders reached 74.2 billion US dollars, with a YoY decrease of -14.8%. The deadweight tons of new orders in June were revised upward by 11.5% compared to the previous data, and the new orders in July were significantly revised upward by 25%. It is still mainly driven by the delayed disclosure of some orders in China, and the YoY growth rate of cumulative orders measured in deadweight tons has turned positive.

Price: The new ship prices continue to rise, with a MoM growth of +0.68%.

In August, the comprehensive index of new ship prices showed a YoY growth of +7.05% and a MoM growth of +0.68%. Among them, the new ship prices for oil tankers/bulk carriers/container ships showed a YoY growth of +7.45%/-2.75%/+1.02% and a MoM growth of +0.00%/+0.09%/-0.82%. Since the beginning of the year, the YoY growth rates of new ship prices for oil tankers/bulk carriers/container ships were +7.06%/+5.70%/+2.40%. In August, the YoY growth rates of second-hand ship prices for oil tankers/bulk carriers/container ships were +16.46%/-11.57%/-53.40%, and the MoM growth rates were +0.03%/-3.06%/-2.39%.

Structure: In August, oil tankers accounted for 36.87% of the new orders.

From January to August, the value of new orders per deadweight ton reached $1071, with a YoY decrease of -15.49%. In terms of the monthly order structure (measured in deadweight tons), oil tankers accounted for the majority. Among them, container ships accounted for 22.36%, LNG ships accounted for 12.49%, oil tankers accounted for 36.87%, and bulk carriers accounted for 21.17%. In terms of monthly orders by country, China/South Korea/Japan accounted for 83.2%/8.3%/8.5% respectively, with a YoY increase of +8.1pp/-1.7pp/-6.0pp and a MoM increase of +34.3pp/-7.3pp/-25.1pp. From January to August (measured in deadweight tons), container ships/LNG ships/oil tankers/bulk carriers accounted for 23.0%/5.9%/31.1%/32.0%, with a YoY increase of +8.9pp/+10.9pp/-22.2pp/+2.1pp. The absolute YoY growth rates were +4.2%/-13.7%/+120.2%/-50.13%. Risk Warning: Fluctuations in the shipping market; fluctuations in raw material prices; fluctuations in exchange rates.