US stocks hit a two-week low, Instacart rose 12%, oil prices paused their upward trend, and US bond yields reached a sixteen-year high.

The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve has begun, and the market consensus is that the interest rate policy will remain unchanged. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November has further decreased to less than 29%. Asset management giant BlackRock predicts that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates until 2024 and leave the door open for future rate hikes.

The increase in gasoline prices has caused Canada's CPI inflation in August to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, compared to the previous value of 3.3%. The upward adjustment in the money market has raised expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada, with the possibility of a rate hike in October estimated at about 40%. The Canadian dollar has risen to a six-week high against the US dollar.

This week, the central banks of the UK, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and Norway will also make interest rate decisions. It is believed that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the last time on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan may maintain its negative interest rate policy. The British pound is hovering at a three-month low against the US dollar, and the yen is approaching a ten-month low.

The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 2.7% to 3%, stating that the risk of soaring oil prices is greater for Europe than for the United States. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that there is absolutely no reason for the federal government to "shut down" on October 1 due to inadequate funding.

US building permits rebounded more than expected in August to 1.543 million households, an increase of 6.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous value of only 0.1%. Housing starts fell more than expected to 1.283 million households, a decrease of 11.3% month-on-month, compared to a previous value of an increase of 3.9%. Eurozone inflation in August fell from 5.3% the previous month to 5.2% year-on-year.

US stocks pare losses in late trading but hit a two-week low, Instacart soars 43% on its first day of trading , NIO falls 17%

On Tuesday, September 19, US stocks opened lower and continued to decline, hitting a daily low during the midday session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 310 points or 0.9%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 0.8%. Consumer discretionary and industrial stocks led the decline, falling more than 1%, while the technology sector fell more than 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell the most, down 1%, with software and semiconductor stocks leading the decline. Energy stocks initially stood out as oil prices hit a ten-month high for four consecutive days, but later fell 1%.

US stocks significantly narrowed their losses before the close, with the Dow Jones hitting a two-week low and the Nasdaq hitting its lowest level since August 25. The broader market and the Nasdaq 100 both hit their lowest levels since August 28, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell for three consecutive days to their lowest level in two and a half months since June 26:

The S&P 500 Index closed down 9.58 points, or 0.22%, at 4,443.95. The Dow Jones fell 106.57 points, or 0.31%, to 34,517.73. The Nasdaq fell 32.05 points, or 0.23%, to 13,678.19. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index fell 0.4%.

S&P's 11 sectors all fell, with the energy sector down 0.8%, consumer discretionary down 0.7%, information technology/tech down 0.08%, while telecommunications services and healthcare sectors saw gains of up to 0.10%.

PIMCO believes that stock investors have failed to consider the probability of an economic recession, and the impact of high oil prices could cause the S&P 500 index to fall by 15%. Some analysts also claim that the rise in Brent crude oil prices above $95 for the first time since November last year is changing Wall Street's trading strategy, with attention on the dollar and energy stocks. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have released macro reports advising clients on how to trade under the impact of energy price shocks.

Tech giants' late-day losses narrowed significantly. "Metaverse" company Meta rose 0.8%, Apple rose 0.6%, Tesla rose 0.5% to move away from its one-week low, Netflix rose 0.5% to move away from its three-and-a-half-month low. Amazon fell 1.7% to a two-week low, having reached its highest level since April last year on Wednesday. Microsoft fell 0.1% to a monthly low, while Google A fell 0.1%, hovering near its highest level in 17 months.

Chip stocks fell across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 1% to a one-month low. Intel fell over 4% to a monthly low, having reached its highest level since July last year last Tuesday. AMD fell 0.7% to return to a four-month low, Nvidia fell 1% to a one-month low, and Arm fell nearly 5% for the third consecutive decline.

Arm has fallen below its IPO opening price.

AI concept stocks also saw a narrowing of late-day losses. C3.ai rose 0.5% to move away from its four-month low, Palantir Technologies fell 2% to a one-and-a-half-week low, SoundHound.ai fell over 5% to its lowest level in over five weeks, and BigBear.ai's decline narrowed to 0.6%.

In terms of news, there are doubts about the cylindrical battery roadmap, as Tesla's North American website has removed the base model of the Model Y AWD that is equipped with the 4680 battery, and now only offers the long-range and performance versions. "Queen of the Bull Market" Cathie Wood insists on a bullish view of Tesla, believing that the stock will rise to $2500 within five years due to the autonomous taxi platform and autonomous driving technology. Amazon plans to hire an additional 250,000 people to cope with the holiday sales season and increase the average hourly wage for warehouse and delivery staff. Nvidia hopes to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam in the semiconductor, AI, and other fields, and may build a factory in Vietnam. Intel showcased its next-generation processor architecture at the "Innovation 2023" conference. OpenAI is about to launch the multimodal model GPT-vision.

Popular Chinese concept stocks followed the decline of the U.S. stock market. ETF KWEB fell 0.5%, CQQQ fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 2%, breaking below 6700 points and falling for three consecutive days to a four-week low since August 22nd. In the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com and Pinduoduo fell 1.5%, while Baidu fell 1.1%. Among other stocks, Alibaba initially dropped 1% but rebounded slightly, Bilibili fell 0.5%, Tencent ADR fell 0.8%, and NIO, which plans to issue $1 billion in convertible bonds, hit a three-month low with a 17% drop. Li Auto fell over 3%, Xpeng fell over 5%, and CCAG dropped more than 56% on its second day of listing.

Regional bank stocks hit a two-month low but narrowed their losses at the close. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, fell 0.4%, marking a three-day decline from its one-month high. On May 4, it hit the lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) fell 0.3%, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.2%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4.

US regional bank stocks hit a two-month low for two consecutive days.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Ford and General Motors both rebounded by 1.8%, while Stellantis rose 2%. The strike by the United Auto Workers in the United States entered its fourth day, and there is a threat to expand the strike if "significant progress" is not made by Friday noon. Some analysts believe that the union's failure to mention reaching a temporary agreement may cause the targeted automakers' stock prices to rise.

Grocery delivery company Instacart opened at $42 on its first day of trading, with a market value of approximately $14 billion, a 40% premium over its $30 IPO price. It reached a peak increase of 43% during trading and closed up more than 12% at $33.70, but fell 2% after hours. Co-founder Apoorva Mehta cashed out $1.1 billion and exited the company.

Instacart reached a peak increase of 43% during trading, closed up more than 12%, and stabilized its valuation at $10 billion.

Its competitor, the US version of Ele.me, DoorDash, initially fell more than 5%. MoffettNathanson downgraded its rating from "outperform" to "neutral" due to the potential risk to the food delivery industry from the resumption of student loan repayments in the United States.

Disney, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell 3.6% to a new low in over a week. It plans to invest $60 billion in theme parks and cruise businesses over the next decade, nearly doubling the previously planned amount. Citigroup believes that the spending plan for the theme parks is not guaranteed and is not favorable for its stock price. Carnival Cruise Line opened with a 3.5% increase, Norwegian Cruise Line reached a maximum increase of 2%, and Royal Caribbean International saw a maximum increase of over 3%. Truist Securities revoked its sell rating on Carnival and upgraded its rating on Royal Caribbean to buy, citing strong trends in the travel industry for the next two years.

Rocket Lab, the second most active rocket company in the United States after SpaceX, opened with a 17% decrease, marking its largest drop since May last year. It fell as much as 26% in pre-market trading after experiencing its first satellite launch failure in over two years. This may result in delays in future launches and adjustments to third-quarter revenue guidance.

European stocks showed mixed performance, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closing down 0.04%, further distancing itself from a five-week high. Retail stocks led the decline, falling 1.6%, while banking and energy stocks both rose by about 1%. European food delivery stocks fell before the opening of Instacart. In addition, the German stock index fell, the Russian RTS index fell by about 2.1%, and the Italian banking index rose by more than 1.3%.

10-year Treasury yield reaches highest level since 2007, 2-year yield approaches highest level in over a decade

As investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Treasury yields rose across the board. The more interest rate-sensitive 2-year yield rose by nearly 5 basis points to 5.11%, reaching a two-month intraday high since July 6.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by a maximum of 5 basis points and approached 4.37%, hovering near the highest level since 2007. The 5-year Treasury yield, surpassing 4.50%, reached its highest level in sixteen years. Analysts believe that the Fed's decision this week may indicate a hawkish stance dependent on data.

Treasury yields collectively approach highest level in over a decade

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury continued to issue $13 billion in 20-year bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.74, higher than the previous 2.56, and a winning yield of 4.592%, marking a new high since May 20, 2020, according to available data. In June, the bid-to-cover ratio reached a historical high of 2.87.

Rising oil prices have reignited concerns about accelerating inflation, leading to a decline in European bond prices. The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the eurozone benchmark, rose by 3 basis points to 2.74%, the highest level since March, while the 2-year yield also rose by 3 basis points, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high since the end of July. However, British bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 5 basis points and the 2-year yield down by 4 basis points.

Oil prices slightly decline after reaching a ten-month high, Brent crude approaches $96, European natural gas rises by 10%

Supply concerns have intensified, and international oil prices have hit the highest level in ten months since November last year for four consecutive days.

In the end, WTI October futures closed down $0.28, or 0.31%, at $91.20 per barrel. Brent November futures closed down $0.09, or 0.10%, at $94.43 per barrel.

WTI October futures rose more than $2 or 2.5% at the highest point, breaking through $93, while November futures, which had more active trading, rose $1.83 or 2%, briefly reaching $92. Brent rose $1.51 or 1.6% at the highest point, not only reaching $95 for the first time since November last year but also attempting to break through $96.

After hitting a ten-month high during the trading session, oil prices fell slightly, with US oil continuing to trade above $90.

Oil prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, with US oil rising by about 30% for the quarter, marking the first quarterly increase in three quarters and the largest increase since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the first quarter of 2022 for both Brent and WTI.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that oil production in the major shale oil-producing regions of the United States is expected to fall to the lowest level in five months, at 9.393 million barrels per day, intensifying supply concerns caused by the extension of production cuts by OPEC+ leading countries Saudi Arabia and Russia.

However, some analysts believe that oil prices have entered the overbought zone, making the market prone to corrections. The CEO of Saudi Aramco has lowered the long-term demand forecast for global demand to 110 million barrels per day by 2030, lower than the previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day, which caused fluctuations in oil prices during yesterday's trading session. The Saudi Energy Minister also warned of uncertainties such as the demand outlook of major economies, European economic growth, and measures taken by central banks in Europe and the United States to address inflation.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas rose 10% to a daily high in the closing session, and ICE UK natural gas rose more than 9%. The temporary shutdown of the Norwegian Troll gas field facilities on September 20 has intensified concerns in the market about fuel supply before the arrival of the European winter heating season.

The US dollar briefly fell below 105, but remained at a six-month high, while the offshore renminbi fell below 7.30 yuan, and Bitcoin rose above $27,000

The US dollar index DXY, which measures against six major currencies, briefly fell 0.4% and fell below 105. US stocks returned above this level during the trading session, not far from the six-month high of 105.43 reached last Thursday, marking the longest period of continuous gains since 2014.

The US dollar has been fluctuating narrowly for several days, hovering at a six-month high. The euro fell against the US dollar, still below 1.07. Yesterday, there were reports that the European Central Bank will discuss tightening excess liquidity in the banking sector as early as next month. The pound is still below 1.24, and the yen against the US dollar is approaching the 148 level, close to a ten-month low.

The latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting suggest that there may be more interest rate hikes in the future, which has led to a rise in the Australian dollar. The offshore renminbi fell below the 7.30 yuan level, dropping nearly 170 points from the previous day's close, returning to a one-week low. Data shows that the renminbi has depreciated more than 5% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year.

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies have risen. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by 4% at one point and reached a monthly high of nearly $27,000 in September, the highest level in nearly three weeks. It had hit a three-month low last Monday. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, approached $1,650, further distancing itself from the six-month low set last week.

According to reports, in addition to traditional assets such as stocks and stock options, the Japanese government also plans to allow startups to sell digital tokens to venture capital funds. Subsequently, the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market surged, increasing price volatility.

Spot gold falls after reaching a two-week high, but stabilizes above $1,930 due to concerns about demand, London metals decline

COMEX December gold futures closed roughly flat at $1,953.70 per ounce, while silver futures fell 0.18%.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,937, reaching a two-week high during intraday trading. Although US stocks turned slightly lower during the session, they still held above the key level of $1,930, reaching the highest level since September 5. However, some analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for a longer period of time, it will eventually be detrimental to the gold price.

Concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy, rising LME warehouse inventories, and demand prospects have led to a general decline in London industrial metals:

The "Copper Doctor," an economic indicator, has fallen for three consecutive days, closing down 0.8% and falling below $8,300, hitting a more than one-week low. The copper inventories in LME registered warehouses have doubled in the past two months to the highest level since May last year, causing the spot price to have the largest discount to the three-month futures in a month.

London aluminum, which rose 1.4% yesterday, fell slightly, but remained close to the high since early August. London zinc fell 1.7% and dropped below $2,500, moving away from the highest level in over a month. London lead also fell 1.2%, similarly moving away from the high of the month. London nickel rose 0.2% and hit a more than one-year low since July last year.