Guo Mingchi: Apple and Qualcomm chip demand is sluggish, ASML's EUV shipment volume is significantly reduced by about 20-30%.

According to the Dolphin Research APP, analysts predict that ASML.US may significantly reduce the shipment volume of its Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines next year. Guo Mingji, a well-known analyst from TF International Securities, stated that the Dutch lithography giant ASML may lower its EUV shipment forecast by about 20-30%.

Guo Mingji pointed out that one of the reasons is the reduced demand for 3-nanometer chips from Apple (AAPL.US). He further noted that the shipment volume of MacBook and iPad has significantly declined, possibly due to the decline in demand for remote work, weakened demand for Apple chips, and a decline in demand for Mini-LED features. Looking ahead to 2024, Apple's demand for 3-nanometer chips is adversely affected by the lack of growth momentum in MacBook and iPad. From a technical perspective, EUV lithography technology can manufacture 5nm and even smaller-sized wafers at a faster speed.

Guo Mingji also stated that the demand for 3-nanometer chips from Qualcomm (QCOM.US) may be lower than expected, as Huawei has stopped using Qualcomm chips and the proportion of Exynos 2400 in Samsung smartphones is higher than expected. The demand for Samsung's 3GAP+ and Intel's 20A(INTC.US) nodes is also "lower than expected".

Finally, the three major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung, Micron (MU.US), and SK Hynix, are expected to announce their expansion plans no earlier than 2025, and it may even be delayed until 2027. Currently, the market consensus is that the entire semiconductor industry will bottom out and rebound in the second half of 2023, but Guo Mingji, the well-known analyst, added, "However, it is necessary to closely monitor whether this bottoming timeline will be further delayed to the first half of 2024 or even the second quarter."