US stocks have risen for three consecutive days, with the Chinese concept index up more than 3%. US bond yields have fallen by more than 10 basis points, and oil prices have turned lower.

Next year, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic made dovish remarks, stating that unless the outlook changes, the Fed no longer needs to raise interest rates. Inflation has improved significantly, but there is still a long way to go, and the economy is clearly slowing down, with many impacts yet to come.

This year, hawkish voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also stated that the rise in bond yields may mean that the Fed needs to slow down its pace of rate hikes. Futures markets continue to lower their bets on rate hikes in November and December, believing that there will be no more rate hikes this year.

The New York Fed survey shows that US consumers' inflation expectations for September have risen, with one-year inflation expectations rising by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% and three-year expectations rising by 0.2 percentage points to 3%.

The market is waiting for the release of the minutes of the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as well as Thursday's CPI consumer inflation, which is expected to continue to cool down. Major companies such as Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will start their third-quarter earnings reports this week, providing more economic details.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have sent mixed signals. The Governor of the Austrian Central Bank stated that if there are additional shocks to the economy, the ECB may raise interest rates once or twice. The Governor of the Bank of France stated that despite the conflict in the Middle East, the inflation target should be achieved by the end of 2025.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that global inflation will remain stubborn and growth will be weak in 2024. It raised the economic outlook for the United States and Japan, lowered the growth expectations for the eurozone in the next two years, and reiterated the forecast of 3% global growth this year, slightly lowering next year's forecast to 2.9%.

US stocks rose for three consecutive days to a two-week high, with chip stocks leading the way, and Chinese concept stocks rising by 3%. European stocks rose by about 2%, reaching their highest level in nearly a year.

On Tuesday, October 10th, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led investors to continue buying US bonds under the guidance of safe-haven sentiment, pushing up bond yields further from the multi-year highs set last week, thereby boosting the performance of risk assets such as European and American stocks.

US stocks opened high and continued to rise, reaching intraday highs at noon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by a maximum of 290 points or 0.9%, the S&P 500 Index rose by a maximum of 1.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 also rose by more than 1% at one point. The Nasdaq 100 broke above its 50-day moving average for the first time since September 15th. The Russell 2000 maintained a gain of over 1% throughout the day, leading the major indices and rising for the fifth consecutive day. The gains in US stocks narrowed slightly after the midday session.

In the end, US stocks rose for three consecutive days, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a two-week high since September 25th, the S&P 500 reaching a near three-week high since September 20th, and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 reaching their highest levels since September 19th. Small-cap stocks reached a high for more than a week since September 29th. The S&P 500 index closed up 22.58 points, or 0.52%, at 4,358.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 134.65 points, or 0.40%, to 33,739.30. The Nasdaq Composite gained 78.60 points, or 0.58%, to 13,562.84. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index closed up 1.1%. The "fear index" VIX fell more than 4% and dropped below 17.

The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 broke above their 50-day moving averages during the session, rebounding 4% from last Friday's low.

Goldman Sachs believes that if the outlook for US economic growth deteriorates, the traditional "60% stocks, 40% bonds" investment strategy will face risks, with stocks potentially leading the decline. Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, said that military conflicts themselves often have a short-term impact on the market, and the future trend of oil prices in the next few days may determine whether the Israeli conflict becomes a more lasting resistance to the stock market. David Kostin, Chief US Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, also believes that the situation in the Middle East will not have a significant impact on the market.

Tech stocks had mixed performances. "Metaverse" company Meta rose 1% to a more than two-month high, while Google Class A shares fell 0.3% off their highest level since April last year. Amazon rose 1% to a two-week high, and Tesla rose 1.5% to a three-week high. Microsoft fell 0.4%, Apple turned down 0.3%, and Netflix fell more than 3%, all falling from three-week highs.

Chip stocks rose across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 2% before closing up 1.3%, returning to above 3,500 points, a nearly four-week high. Intel rose 1% to a three-week high, AMD rose nearly 2%, and Nvidia rose more than 1%, all reaching five-week highs. Arm rose 2.7% to a nearly two-week high.

AI concept stocks rebounded. C3.ai rose more than 8% to a three-week high, SoundHound.ai rose 2.6% close to a monthly high, and Palantir Technologies rose more than 4% to a two-month high. However, BigBear.ai fell more than 4%, falling from a more than two-week high.

In terms of news, AI "monetization dilemma" encountered difficulties, with stagnant revenue growth for ChatGPT and Microsoft's Github Copilot refunding 10 yuan for every 20 yuan spent. AMD will acquire open-source AI software company Nod.ai to catch up with Nvidia. Mainstream investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs are all bullish on Arm. Palantir has received a $250 million order from the US military for testing and developing artificial intelligence and machine learning. Jefferies lowered its target price for Tesla to $250, expecting a further 4% decline, citing concerns about growth uncertainty and profit margin pressure. Hot Chinese concept stocks outperform the US stock market. ETF KWEB rose 3.5%, CQQQ rose over 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) reached a high of 3.6%, closing up 3.1%, breaking through 6700 points for the first time in three weeks since September 18.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituent stocks, JD.com rose 3.6%, Baidu rose nearly 1%, and Pinduoduo rose 2.4%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba rose 2.7%, Bilibili rose nearly 8% after rising more than 11%, Tencent ADR rose nearly 2%, NIO rose nearly 6%, Li Auto rose more than 4%, XPeng rose about 4%, Nenglian Zhide rose more than 12%, and JA Solar rose nearly 9%. Bilibili has set a user growth target to double the number of daily active users on the mobile end. Li Auto stated that it will strive for a new monthly sales record of 40,000 vehicles this month.

Bank stocks rise across the board. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 1.6%, rising for five consecutive days from a four-and-a-half-month low to a monthly high. On May 4, it hit the lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) rose 1.1% to a three-week high, hitting the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11; the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 1.6% to a three-week high, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Beverage and snack giant PepsiCo rose nearly 2%, rebounding for three days from a new low of more than a year. Third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and the full-year outlook was raised for the third consecutive quarter. The company also stated that it has enough time to adapt to changes in consumer habits caused by new weight-loss drugs.

"Tesla's rival" Rivian rose more than 6%, breaking away from a more than three-month low. It plummeted nearly 23% last Thursday. UBS upgraded its rating to buy, stating that the improvement in fundamentals provides a buying opportunity after recent sell-offs.

US defense stocks continue to rise. iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA rose 0.7% to a three-week high, with a 4.5% increase yesterday, the largest single-day increase since November 9, 2020. However, Northrop Grumman, which rose more than 11% yesterday, fell more than 1%, and Lockheed Martin opened higher by more than 1% but fell 0.3% afterwards. The gains of Raytheon Technologies and Kratos Defense were significantly weaker than on Monday.

After a 7% slump on Monday, iShares MSCI Israel ETF EIS turned up nearly 1%, breaking away from a three-year low since September 2020. ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF IZRL, which fell more than 5% yesterday, rose more than 2%, breaking away from a five-month low, but fell 3% after the market closed. Some analysts believe that the conflict between Israel and Hamas poses a risk to the $43 billion in Israeli-related fund assets. European stocks surged by about 2% across the board. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 1.96%, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a year since November last year and reaching a two-week high since September 22. All sectors saw gains, with travel stocks, which had fallen on Monday, rebounding strongly by nearly 4%, mining stocks rising by nearly 3%, and technology stocks leading the market. The Euro Stoxx 50, as well as the Italian and French stock indices, all rose by more than 2%.

Analysts believe that dovish comments on interest rate paths from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as a decline in oil prices and US and European bond yields this week, have helped to calm investor nerves. LVMH's European stocks rose by over 3%, but after rising by over 3% in the US, they fell by 1.7%, essentially wiping out the week's gains and falling to the lowest level this year. Sales growth in the third quarter slowed down, affected by a cooling global demand for luxury goods.

US Treasury Yields Fall by More Than 10 Basis Points, Two-Year Yield Hits Monthly Low, Long Bond Yield Moves Away from 16-Year High

With the market's cooling expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and increased buying of safe-haven assets such as government bonds, US Treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday.

The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell the most by 15 basis points, dropping below the 5% mark to 4.93%, the lowest in a month since September 8. The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell the most by 18 basis points to 4.62%, although it rebounded to 4.71% in pre-market trading. The 30-year long bond yield fell by 16 basis points to 4.80%, moving further away from the 16-year high and hitting a one-week low.

US Treasury Yields Fall by More Than 10 Basis Points, Two-Year Yield Falls Below 5% for the First Time in Nearly a Month

As the US government continues to rebuild cash balances and provide funding for larger deficits, the US Treasury Department is increasing the issuance of the shortest-term Treasury bills to the highest level ever. This week, the issuance of 4-week, 8-week, and 17-week Treasury bills will be expanded.

The benchmark German bond yield in the eurozone initially rose but then fell back. The 10-year bond yield rose slightly to 2.78% at the close, moving away from the daily high of 2.84% after the US stock market opened, and approaching the daily low of 2.76% during the initial decline of European stocks. The long bond yield fell even more, with the two-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 3.07%. The 10-year Italian bond yield, which has a higher debt burden than peripheral countries, fell by about 12 basis points, hitting a daily low of 4.72%.

The spread between 10-year Italian and German bond yields, which measures risk sentiment, narrowed to less than 200 basis points. On Monday, it widened to 210 basis points due to safe-haven sentiment, as investors preferred to buy German bonds rather than higher-risk Italian bonds, thereby increasing the risk premium of the latter. On Tuesday, the long-end UK bond yield fell by about 6 basis points, continuing the recent downward trend. The two-year yield fell by 3 basis points and has fallen for five consecutive days.

Oil prices fell more than 1% during the day and European natural gas jumped more than 13% , with a cumulative increase of more than 34% in three days

After jumping more than 4% yesterday, international oil prices fell more than 1 US dollar during the day on Tuesday. WTI November futures closed down $0.41, a decrease of 0.47%, at $85.97 per barrel. Brent December futures closed down $0.50, a decrease of 0.57%, at $87.65 per barrel.

WTI crude oil fell the most by $1.26 or 1.5%, once falling below $86 and approaching the $85 integer level. Brent crude oil fell the most by $1.23 or 1.4%, once falling below $87, both reaching the highest level since last Wednesday.

Analysts believe that in addition to focusing on demand prospects, investors are also concerned that geopolitical conflicts will damage Middle East supplies, which caused both oil prices to jump more than $3.50 on Monday. Although Israel's crude oil production is very small, the market is worried that the escalation of the conflict will worsen the expected supply deficit this year.

Oil prices fell more than 1% during the day, reaching the highest level since last Wednesday

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas rose nearly 14%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 35% in the past three days, reaching the highest level in a month and a half since the end of August, and approaching the 50 euro/megawatt-hour integer level. ICE UK natural gas also rose more than 13% on Tuesday, with a cumulative increase of about 38% in three days.

On the news front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Russia's natural gas production to reach a 14-year low this year; it is reported that the investigation of the leak in the underwater natural gas pipeline from Finland to Estonia will be conducted under the assumption of deliberate sabotage, which has increased uncertainty and volatility.

The US dollar fell below 106 to a two-week low, and the offshore RMB rose nearly 200 points to 7.27 yuan, the lowest in nearly eight years for the Israeli currency

The downward adjustment of interest rate expectations caused the US dollar index DXY, which measures against a basket of six major currencies, to fall the most by 0.4% and fall below the 106 level. It has fallen for five consecutive days since reaching a 11-month high of 107.34 last week, reaching a two-week low since September 25, and still up 2.5% year-to-date.

The US dollar fell below 106 to a two-week low, continuing to fall since the non-farm data last Friday

The euro rose above 1.06 against the US dollar, and the pound approached 1.23 against the US dollar, both reaching a two-week high. The yen against the US dollar remained above the 149 level, reaching the highest level in a week during the day. The offshore RMB rose above 7.29 yuan in the US stock market, rising to 7.27 yuan at one point during the day, an increase of nearly 200 points from the previous day's closing, reaching the highest level in more than three weeks since September 15. Israeli shekel hits near eight-year low.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies show mixed performance. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell 1% to $27,300, hitting a monthly low. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, also fell 1% and approached the $1,560 mark, reaching a one-month low.

Bitcoin falls back to the low point of last Friday's non-farm data.

Futures gold rises, but spot gold falls from one-week high, economic concerns lead to a 1% drop in London industrial metals, London copper fails to rise for three consecutive days

The decline in the US dollar and US bond yields boosted the price of gold. COMEX December gold futures rose 0.59% to $1,875.30 per ounce, and silver futures rose more than 0.1% to around $22 per ounce.

However, spot gold fell slightly and hovered around the $1,860 mark, ending a two-day rally and falling from a one-week high since September 29. Some analysts believe that the rebound in European and American stock markets has affected the performance of gold prices. On Monday, safe-haven gold rose by about 1.6%, marking the largest single-day increase in five months.

The monthly report from the World Gold Council shows that gold will continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks due to the active US economy, rising bond yields, fragile stock markets, increasing recession risks, inflation fluctuations, and continued interest from central banks, which will support prices.

Spot gold falls slightly from a one-week high, hovering around $1,860.

London industrial metals end a two-day rally and fall 1% together, poor global economic prospects weigh on prices:

The economic indicator "Dr. Copper" fails to rise for three consecutive days. Although it rose to $8,146, a one-week high, during the trading session, it fell 1% and fell below $8,100. London aluminum fell 0.9% to a three-week low, London zinc fell 1.6% and fell below $2,500, reaching a one-month low.

London lead fell 1.3% and approached $2,100, a two-month low. London nickel fell 1.4%, approaching a two-year low. London tin fell 1.7% and fell below $25,000, moving away from the monthly high.

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group stated that due to slower-than-expected demand growth, the global refined zinc market is expected to have a surplus of 248,000 tons this year, compared to the previous forecast of a deficit of 45,000 tons.