Research Framework for the US Technology Industry

To study the U.S. tech industry, you can't just look at one or two companies, because it's a massive system driven by policies, technology, capital, and consumer trends. Below, I'll break down the investment logic of this industry step by step, from macro to micro.
Macro & Policies:
The prosperity of U.S. tech doesn't exist in isolation—it's directly influenced by the macro environment and policies.
Monetary Environment: Rising interest rates compress high-valuation tech stocks, while loose policies fuel imagination.

Policy Support: Semiconductors have the CHIPS Act, while new energy and AI also enjoy subsidies and policy tilts.

Regulatory Challenges: Antitrust and data privacy regulations are limiting giants but also leaving growth gaps for second-tier companies.

👉 For investors, judging policy direction is equivalent to judging the industry's "wind direction."

2. Industry Structure:
The U.S. tech industry is vast and can be divided into several core sectors:
Semiconductors: The cornerstone of the AI and cloud era—design (NVIDIA, AMD), manufacturing (Intel, TSMC U.S. plants), and equipment (Applied Materials).

Cloud & SaaS: AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, driven by enterprise digitization and computing demand.

Internet Platforms: Google, Meta, Amazon, primarily monetized via ads and traffic.

Hardware & Ecosystem: Apple locks in users via its ecosystem, not just by selling phones.

Emerging Tech: AI, edge computing, quantum—still in early stages but with huge potential.

👉 The key to investing is understanding each sub-sector's "business model": who relies on one-time big orders, who has stable subscription revenue, and who holds pricing power.
3. Drivers:
Tech Iteration: Explosive GPU demand, AI chips displacing general-purpose chips.

Capital Expenditure: Every dollar spent by cloud giants flows directly to semiconductor and equipment firms.

Consumer Demand: Mobility, intelligence, and entertainment drive sustained expansion in hardware and platform traffic.

In other words, every industry boom is almost always accompanied by a triple resonance of "tech breakthroughs + capital spending + consumer demand."
4. Financial Characteristics:
Valuation methods vary drastically across sectors:
Semiconductors: Use EV/EBITDA, PS due to strong cyclicality.

SaaS/Cloud: Look at EV/Sales and retention rates, given the model.

Platform Companies: Use PE, market share, and ad/traffic metrics.

Emerging Tech: Not yet profitable—focus on growth, user count, and computing demand.

👉 Investors must first understand "how to value this industry" to avoid misapplying valuation models.

5. Opportunities & Risks:
Opportunities
AI Infrastructure: GPUs, cloud computing, optical comms.

Cloud & SaaS: Stable cash flow, predictable growth.

Second-Tier Innovators: Niche leaders like Snowflake, Palantir.

Risks
Policy Tightening (antitrust, export controls).

Tech Displacement (RISC-V, quantum breakthroughs).

Overvaluation (especially amid AI hype).

6. Outlook:
Short-Term (1–2Y): AI and cloud capex continue driving semis and equipment stocks.

Mid-Term (3–5Y): SaaS consolidation accelerates; AI penetrates more industries.

Long-Term (5–10Y): Quantum computing, AGI could disrupt the entire landscape.

The U.S. tech industry's core traits are high growth, strong concentration, and rapid iteration.
For investors:
Leaders endure cycles (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA).

Second-tier firms offer high elasticity (Snowflake, Palantir, ServiceNow).

Emerging plays are high-risk but could reshape the game (AI infra, quantum).
Studying U.S. tech means tracking four key clues—"policy winds, tech breakthroughs, capex, and consumer demand"—and landing on reasonably valued + catalyst-rich companies to find real opportunities amid the noise.