US stock market review, early session on September 22

I. Market News

Macro: The preliminary US September Markit Manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum, which has led markets to reprice the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. The US dollar index retreated, and Treasury yields declined, providing support for growth stocks.

Sector Updates:

Tech: NVIDIA and AMD saw their price targets raised by multiple institutions in pre-market trading, with AI server order demand remaining strong.

Energy: Tensions in the Middle East persist, oil prices stabilized and rebounded, driving a slight recovery in the energy sector.

Consumer: September retail data showed weak US consumer spending, putting pressure on retail stocks.

Market Focus: Investors are focused on Fed officials' speeches this week and the Q3 earnings season preview. Divergence remains in market expectations for interest rates and corporate earnings.

II. Technical Analysis

Major Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Oscillating near the 20-day moving average, with a defensive stance in the short term.

S&P 500: Locked in a tug-of-war around 5,400, lacking short-term breakout momentum but with solid support below.

Nasdaq: Rebounded in early trading driven by tech stocks. A breakout above the early September high on strong volume would confirm a new uptrend.

Key Stocks

NVIDIA (NVDA): Pulled back to the 20-day moving average before rallying again. Short-term support is around $115; holding this level could pave the way for a retest of the previous high at $120.

AMD (AMD): Continued its upward consolidation. A decisive break above the key resistance at $140 could target $150, with volume expansion being the key watchpoint.

Tesla (TSLA): Remains weak, hovering below $250 with no clear technical rebound signals. A wait-and-see approach is advised for now.

Apple (AAPL): Facing resistance near $200, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. Catalysts from new product sales data are needed.

Exxon Mobil (XOM): Benefited from the rebound in oil prices, breaking above the $120 level in early trading, with technicals gradually improving.

III. Strategy

Short-term Trading: Amid the sideways market, focus on structural opportunities in AI and semiconductors, particularly second-tier players with high shipment volumes and margin flexibility.

Mid-term Allocation: If Treasury yields continue to decline, valuation pressures on tech and growth stocks will ease further. Consider scaling into core holdings while moderately allocating to energy and commodities as a geopolitical hedge.

Risk Control: The pre-earnings quiet period in late September may heighten volatility. Avoid chasing rallies, monitor support levels, and maintain some cash reserves for contingencies.