amit
2025.11.18 17:09

okay let’s try to really think from first principles here…

aug = supposed to crash, we went higher

sep = supposed to crash, we went higher

oct = even with the choppiness, we ended +2.5% for the month

nov = we are down about 4%

at it’s core, it does feel like this pullback is healthy given we were green 6 months in a row…

now, the concerns around AI bubble, debt financing, rate cuts, and the labor market are obviously real and probably deserve to get the market off it’s highs

but people are saying get ready for 2022 2.0 where everything collapses and we enter into a 40% decline on the Nasdaq

if anything, I think a -5%, even -10% move here is a form of digesting all the news of the past few months, allowing valuation multiples to compress to more reasonable standards, and getting rid of all the excess froth/leverage in the system

just does not seem like a time for panic but rather holding, maybe selling some calls, buying some puts if you need protection and looking for great dips on massively oversold names vs completely exiting the markets because of a 5% downward move after 6 months of green

Source: amit

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