StockMarket.News
2025.11.18 19:29

The US has roughly 5,381 data centers compared to China's 449. That's more compute infrastructure than literally every other major country combined. The American thesis is straightforward whoever owns the most advanced infrastructure wins the AI race.

But China's not even trying to compete on that front. They've conceded the data center count game entirely. Instead, they're playing a completely different strategy. While the US was building massive facilities packed with expensive GPUs China open sourced frontier level AI models. DeepSeek, Qwen, Baichuan, anyone can run them locally or on cheap cloud infrastructure.

The efficiency gap is absurd. DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $5-6 million. OpenAI spent tens of millions on equivalent capability. Running inference on DeepSeek costs roughly 280 times less than ChatGPT. China built fewer data centers but optimized for ruthless cost efficiency modular facilities that deploy in weeks, positioned near cheap power sources. The strategy is clear commoditize intelligence make it so cheap that control becomes irrelevant

Also, the US is hitting a hard power grid constraint. Data centers currently consume about 6% of total US electricity. By 2030, that's projected to nearly double to 11%. Spare grid capacity has dropped from 26% five years ago to 19% today and could fall below 15% by the end of the decade. Goldman Sachs estimates data centers could need 123 gigawatts by 2035, up from 4 gigawatts in 2024. There are already seven year waiting lists just to connect new facilities to the grid.

You can build 5,381 data centers, but if you can't power them reliably, you're just constructing expensive buildings. Data center executives are already scrambling, building their own behind the meter power generation because utilities can't handle the load. In Ohio, grid capacity limits forced utilities to reject 17 gigawatts in interconnection requests because the infrastructure simply couldn't support it.

China solved this problem. Their installed power capacity is expected to hit 3.99 trillion watts by end of 2025, up 19% from a year earlier. Solar and wind now account for nearly half their generation. China added 197 gigawatts of solar and 46 gigawatts of wind just in the first five months of 2025, renewable additions at a pace the US can't match.

By 2030, China's projected to have around 400 gigawatts of spare power capacity more than three times global data center power demand. They're not just solving the problem, they're building surplus. Their data center electricity demand will increase 170% by 2030, but their power infrastructure can absorb it without hitting critical constraints.

This is the real inversion. The US built more data centers but less available power to scale them. China built fewer data centers but essentially unlimited power to scale whatever they want. In five years that dynamic flips how this entire competition looks. The winner isn't determined by who built more infrastructure today, it's determined by who can actually power their infrastructure tomorrow and right now, that's China.

Source: StockMarket.News

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