$Intel(INTC.US) rose 2.63% today, and the market is starting to refocus on its potential for further gains. From a fundamental perspective, Intel is not lacking in logic; rather, the relevant logic is still in the process of being gradually realized.

The recent improvement in market sentiment is mainly due to a recovery in data center demand, coupled with growth in AI-related chip and server orders. At the same time, the company's progress in its foundry business and advanced process roadmap has also led some funds to begin positioning early for a "recovery expectation."

However, it will take time for these logics to truly translate into sustained stock price gains. Whether it's improving yields on advanced processes, ramping up shipments of AI chips, or expanding foundry customers, they all ultimately need to be validated by actual revenue and profit growth.

From a trading perspective, the risk-reward ratio for short-term speculation is not particularly high, and the current volatility structure may not be fully over. However, if we extend the time horizon to a 6-12 month mid-term cycle, the current price range, having retreated from previous sentiment highs, actually provides a more comfortable entry point, as the company's fundamental logic has not materially changed.

Looking ahead, if Intel can successfully achieve stable mass production of advanced processes within 2026, while its AI server and data center businesses continue to grow, the market may revalue it closer to a growth tech company rather than a traditional cyclical semiconductor company. If this expectation is gradually fulfilled, it is not impossible for the stock price to reach the $60–70 range by the end of 2026.

From a technical structure perspective, the area around 50 is a key resistance zone. Once the price effectively breaks through this range with volume support, it is expected to further challenge and break through previous highs, opening up new upside potential.

In the short term, the stock price is more likely to consolidate within the $44–51 range, digesting holdings and overhead pressure through sideways movement, waiting for further catalysts from fundamentals or news to drive a breakout to new highs for the phase.