$MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Meituan (3690.HK) has had a brutal year. But with subsidy wars cooling and overseas expansion gaining traction, is the worst finally over?

🔹 Technical Snapshot

❤️ Meituan is trading at HKD81.95, hovering just above support at HKD 80.24. The stock has been in a clear downtrend since peaking near 52 weeks high, HKD160.8, with resistance now at HKD88.02–HKD89.80.

❤️ RSI sits at 48.79–49.35, daily charts. In neutral but leaning bearish, confirming subdued momentum. The stock is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling ongoing weakness.

❤️ Bearish trend intact and waiting for a catalyst to reverse.

🔹 Fundamental Snapshot

2025 was a brutal year for Meituan. The food delivery subsidy war pushed the company to a net loss of 234 billion yuan. Q4 revenue grew just 4% while adjusted net loss hit 15.1 billion yuan.

However, signs of a turnaround are emerging. Regulators have signaled the subsidy war should and must end. Analysts expect 2026 to be the trough.

Key positives:

❤️New business crossed 100 billion yuan revenue (+19%).

❤️Keeta overseas: Hong Kong already profitable and target Saudi Arabia profitability by late 2026

❤️AI investments: 26 billion yuan R&D spend in 2025 (+23%).

🔹 My verdict:

Technicals remain weak, but fundamentals suggest the worst may be priced in. For patient investors, the risk-reward is improving.

🔹 Further information:

Analyst sentiment on Meituan remains broadly positive. Most analysts maintain a Buy/Outperform ratings despite ongoing competition concerns and mixed recent earnings.

Not financial advice. Trade safety and stay vigilant at all times.