NONFARM JOB PAYROLLS REPORT TODAY:
The US added +178K jobs, ahead of the +65K expected. Unemployment rate went down from 4.4% to 4.3%.This was the highest gain since March of 2025.However…last month’s revision also came in. The -92K was revised to -133K, the worst month for job losses since December 2020.If the March numbers are actually real, which now is hard to believe because every month just gets revised the next month (2025 ended up getting a revision for -1M jobs on the year) then it’s a really strong beat and healthy for the economy.It’s likely not the best for inflation because more jobs = more spending which is why the 10-year picked up, but it is good for earnings.If the job numbers aren’t real, eventually we will see the revision but a lower number could end up reducing inflation which maybe gives a better chance at a rate cut. It’s just putting the Fed in a hard spot because the inflation numbers make it hard to cut and the massive jobs beat also proves the labor market isn’t weak enough to cut.If oil could come down…and jobs continue to go up…we’d have the best of both worlds but as of now that scenario is not playing out.Source: amit
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