$BABA-W(09988.HK)

🐉 Alibaba Q4 Earnings: The 4 Pillars to Watch

This Wednesday is “Judgment Day” for Alibaba. As the dust settles on its massive restructuring, the market is no longer just looking at total revenue. I will be looking for proof that its core engines, E-commerce and Cloud are actually regaining momentum.

1️⃣ The “Cash Cow”: Taobao & Tmall Group (TTG)

Alibaba has been investing heavily in “price competitiveness” to fight off PDD. I will be focusing on customer management revenue (CMR) and GMV figures. A higher order volumes are translating into actual revenue growth or margins are being sacrificed.

2️⃣ The “Growth Engine”: Cloud Intelligence Group

Public cloud and AI are the future. Their AI-related Revenue and EBITA margins are critical to their top and bottom line. In 2024/2025, AI revenue saw triple-digit growth.

I want to see if Cloud is finally contributing significantly to the bottom line as a high-margin business.

3️⃣ The “Global Expansion”: International Digital Commerce

Another important segment I am watching are Lazada and AliExpress revenue growth. These are their fastest-growing segment and is still burning cash. A narrowing losses is a great signal that their global scale is becoming sustainable.

4️⃣ The “Shareholder Gift”: Buybacks & Dividends

Aggressive share buybacks remain a key “safety net” for the share price. It also helps to boost its share earnings per share even if profit stays flat. It is the ultimate floor for the stock price all shareholders like.

I am also looking forward for a confirmation of the expected HKD 8.2 per share dividend.

🔷The Verdict

If Alibaba shows Double-Digit Cloud Growth plus its Stable E-commerce Margins, expect a “Buy” signal. If they are still losing market share to competitors, caution is advised.

Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and your risk management 😁.