$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) has been really busy lately. I originally had no plan to post before the market opened today, but I suddenly remembered that the Google I/O conference is happening this week. I suddenly felt it necessary to take a look at $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)'s data before the market opens on Monday.
When I look at the top-left chart, the two-year implied volatility, I think the current volatility is underestimated.This Google I/O conference should be considered an event on par with an earnings report. Besides some hardware product announcements, Google is highly likely to introduce the next generation of Gemini and might even add some AI products at the Google I/O conference.Now, among the three AI giants, no one permanently holds a dominant, overwhelming lead. Every time a new model is released, regardless of its benchmark ranking, there are always some features that can capture media attention and investor focus.The top-left chart shows that $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)'s implied volatility is still clearly at the pre-earnings baseline level, which I believe is an underestimate. In this state, if you are on the options selling side, you will bear event risk.The top-right chart doesn't have new information. Because since the earnings report, the long positions in the tech sector haven't shown significant signs of retreating, so the Put/Call volatility spread remains near the zero line.The interesting one is the bottom-left chart. In last Friday's trading, there were a large number of call option bets for mid-July, all bought out-of-the-money with a total volume exceeding ten thousand contracts. This is an abnormally bullish bet, but because the duration is as long as two months, it doesn't necessarily seem to be a bet specifically on the Google I/O conference.The bottom-right chart is the cumulative position distribution for end-of-May options. At the maximum pain point price of 370, there happens to be a massive put option. Since this put option is still out-of-the-money, the maximum pain point price is unrelated to it. However, if the stock price falls, the strike price of 370 will definitely be a strong support level in the downward direction.
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