Micron Back Above USD 1,000: How Long Can The Memory Supercycle Run?

Micron reclaimed USD 1,000 with another 10% move, up roughly 200% this year, while UBS sits on a USD 1,625 target. The bull case is concrete: 2026 HBM capacity is sold out, DRAM and NAND pricing is climbing, and gross margin is guided toward the high 60s. That is not how memory used to behave.

Why this cycle is different

Past memory upcycles were demand spikes that supply crushed within a few quarters. This one is anchored by multi-year AI data centre contracts and a supply side that has stayed disciplined about adding capacity. The result is fab-like margins on a business the market is used to underwriting at trough multiples.

The risk I keep front of mind

Memory is still memory. The thing bulls underestimate is how fast it turns when Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung all add capacity into the same strong pricing. A USD 1,625 target assumes that discipline holds well into next year. If it breaks, margins and the multiple compress together.

Where I land

I am long and staying long, but I size it like a cyclical, not a compounder. I trim into vertical moves and add on real pullbacks. Sold out through 2026 is a powerful fact. It is also already fairly well known.