U.S. stocks retreated pre-mkt (SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.8%) ahead of the June jobs report (+115K exp), with tech shares falling for a second day and South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix plunging 9% and 13% respectively on oversupply concerns. Brent crude fell to $70.84/bbl amid high Strait of Hormuz flows, as Trump noted progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen +23% YoY to $342 (2026 P/E 21.9x, 4.6% earnings yield vs 4.5% 10-year TYs) on AI and energy gains. TSLA 2Q deliveries are expected to beat consensus today (my est 420K vs WS est 406K) although my longer-term caution persists due to declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, rising autonomous competition, and an extended valuation.
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