Equity research
2026.07.06 20:36

Bernstein: ASML High-NA EUV

> Revenue and EPS Forecasts: Driven by unprecedented AI expansion, Bernstein forecasts ASML’s total revenue to reach €80bn by 2030 (a 20% CAGR). The 2028 EPS estimate was bumped to €67.44 (35% above consensus), scaling up to €96.86 by 2030.

> Revenue and EPS Forecasts: Driven by unprecedented AI expansion, Bernstein forecasts ASML’s total revenue to reach €80bn by 2030 (a 20% CAGR). The 2028 EPS estimate was bumped to €67.44 (35% above consensus), scaling up to €96.86 by 2030.

> Shipment Capacity Expansion: Expected EUV system shipments were raised to 91 units in 2027 and 113 units in 2028, eventually hitting 125 units by 2030.

> DRAM First: Memory manufacturers are expected to adopt High-NA EUV faster than logic players. Because DRAM dies are smaller, they only require 1 mask (no stitching). Adoption is anticipated around 2027–2028 at the 1d node, led by SK hynix and Samsung.

> Logic to Follow: Large logic dies (like GPUs/CPUs) require "stitching" across two masks (AB), which currently cuts throughput by ~23%. Bernstein estimates Intel will be the first logic adopter in 2028 (A14 node), followed by Samsung Logic in 2029, and a more conservative TSMC in 2030 (A10 node).

> Improving Tool Availability: A main detractor of HNA has been low initial tool availability (~80% in 2025 vs. ~95% for Low-NA). However, maturity is improving rapidly, with a target fleet availability of 95% by 2030.

> Cost Deflation: As tool availability reaches 95% and throughput improves across generations, the equipment cost per HNA exposure is projected to drop by 23% between 2025 and 2030. The cost gap of an HNA logic exposure compared to Low-NA will narrow from over 3x down to ~2x by 2030.

$ASML(ASML.US)

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