Macro uncertainty is what's driving semis equities right now.
More than hyperscaler capex forecasts and other earnings releases.The Fed's policy meeting next week could lead to a hawkish surprise, which is resulting in institutional investors playing things cautiously at the moment. Ongoing US/Iran escalations -> rising oil prices -> prolonged inflation -> potential rate hike.- Brent crude up 35% in three weeks- US 10Y yield set for its biggest weekly increase since early May- Fed funds futures traders now price in a 36% chance of a rate hike decision next week by the Fed (up from just 13% last week) So ultimately, the prolonged war is having a negative second-order impact on semis. Which is why all your favourite names - from $Nebius(NBIS.US) to $Sandisk(SNDK.US) to $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) - are all moving in lockstep regardless of their individual sub-sector or any sort of business fundamentals.Another example is $Intel(INTC.US) erasing all it's post-market gains today after reporting solid earnings yesterday. That would not happen under any sort of clear/stable macro conditions.Business fundamentals for the semis will certainly superceed all macro uncertainty in the long-run.
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