从 11 月的美国制造业 PMI 来看,仍在收缩期没什么改善。且从历史来看,每轮经济下行当中,多数都以制造业 PMI 的先行下行为特征,并最终将服务业 PMI 也拖入负值预期。

而目前制造业 PMI 已经在 50 以下徘徊了 13 个月,不妨关注接下来服务业 PMI 的下行速度。

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