ATFX Hong Kong stocks: In the long term, the Hang Seng Index has returned to the bottom area since 2008.

News:

1. On April 12, the authorities released the "Several Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Capital Market" document, which mentioned nine opinions, referred to as the "National Nine Articles." Key points include: including pre-IPO "clearance-style" dividends in the negative list for issuance and listing; promoting multiple dividends per year, pre-dividends, and dividends before the Spring Festival; and strengthening supervision of high-frequency quantitative trading. Overall, the "National Nine Articles" show vigilance toward various issues in the current capital market, with proposed opinions and measures targeting the core problems. This is positive for improving the stock market system and bullish for the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

2. Boosted by the bullish news of the "National Nine Articles," the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.26% today, nearly erasing last week's cumulative losses. The Hang Seng Index, lifted by optimism in the mainland market, opened with a gap down but closed higher, narrowing the loss to 0.72% by the end of the day.

3. According to official data, there were 3,971 residential property sale contracts in Hong Kong in March, up 67.2% month-on-month; the total contract value was HKD 30.1 billion, up 57.4% month-on-month. Third-party data shows that transactions in Hong Kong's top ten secondary housing estates surged 2.6 times to 359 units. The continued strength of the property market is beneficial for macroeconomic prospects and market optimism, potentially further boosting the Hang Seng Index.

Data:

1. At 10:00 this Tuesday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Q1 GDP annual rate, March retail sales annual rate, and March industrial output annual rate. These three indicators are crucial for assessing Q1 macroeconomic performance. Strong data could significantly boost the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

2. The Q1 GDP annual growth rate is expected at 4.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous 5.2%. The March retail sales annual rate is expected at 4.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from 5.5%. The March industrial output annual rate is expected at 6%, down 1 percentage point from 7%. If the final figures match these weak expectations, they could severely impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

Technical Analysis:

▲ATFX Chart

The above shows the daily chart of Hang Seng Bank. Although the Hang Seng Index remains in a rebound phase, the latest short-term uptrend has stalled at the previous high of R:17214, failing to sustain the earlier momentum and showing signs of mid-term topping. The first support level is S:16341, and today's bullish close was partly due to this support. Given the pessimistic expectations for tomorrow's data, S:16341 is likely to be breached this week. Over a longer horizon, the Hang Seng Index's lowest point this year, 14794, is close to its 2008 closing price of 14387, indicating it has fallen to a 16-year low.

▲ATFX Chart

The above shows the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index. The rebound in the Shanghai Composite has been smoother than the Hang Seng Index's. The "National Nine Articles" clearly boosted the Shanghai Composite, with today's bullish candle engulfing last week's four trading days. The price is between R:3090 and S:2984, closer to R:3090, suggesting short-term upward momentum and promising prospects.

ATFX Risk Disclaimer: The market carries risks; invest with caution. The above represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute investment advice. Do not rely solely on this report. Analyst views may change over time without notice.