Don't try to make money based on probability, because you'll most likely lose! | Dongge Notes

Author | Li Chengdong

Dongge's Notes Issue 127:

Dongge is quite aggressive in financial investments. At the age of 26, when he joined Tencent, he invested over 100,000 RMB—half of his net worth at the time—in an angel investment.

He invested in a field he was completely unfamiliar with—a tech company that still exists today. It nearly collapsed several times, and he even had to borrow money twice to keep it afloat. On paper, it's profitable, but in reality, there's been no return so far.

Having seen tens of thousands of startups, I don’t recommend ordinary people invest in early-stage equity projects. The failure rate is so high you might lose everything!

You can only earn within your capabilities. Don’t chase probabilistic gains—because the probability is you’ll lose money!

In any career, aim for high-probability success. If a career has low odds of success, it depends on whether you’re smart enough, hardworking enough, and lucky enough!

01

More Opportunities ≠ Higher Success Rate

Everyone has limited energy but endless things to do. Some are opportunities, some are traps. Even among opportunities, outcomes vary greatly based on effort. You gain some, you lose some—prioritization is key. Those who try everything often end up with nothing. Increasing opportunities doesn’t mean increasing success probability.

Life offers seven major opportunities. The first two are missed because you’re too young to recognize them. The last two come at 50 or 60, when you lack the drive to take risks. That leaves just three chances. Entrepreneurs must make high-probability decisions.

Startups differ from venture capital. VCs can afford to bet on ten companies, hoping two or three succeed. But entrepreneurs stake their entire fortune on one venture—they can’t afford reckless risks.

The fastest path to success? As Kazuo Inamori wrote: Focus relentlessly on one thing, repeat, refine, and master it. Harness the power of compound effort, and you’ll excel in any niche. The real danger is drifting between fields.

02"Four Ounces" Might Not Move "A Thousand Pounds"

Many publishers and friends urge me to write a book. Some do it for fame or business leverage—valid reasons. But I feel unqualified. A book should educate, helping people and companies avoid pitfalls. I don’t believe in "leveraging small efforts for huge gains." Such cases exist—I know many—but treating lottery odds as a strategy is dangerous. Success requires steady effort, strong fundamentals, and smart use of external leverage.

03

Startup Success Is Probability

A call with a startup partner: More variables mean lower success odds. For an e-commerce startup—supply chain, product, channels, ops, funding—even 90% confidence in each area multiplies to just 59% overall success. At 85% per area, it drops to 44%. And that’s without competitive risks! Startups aren’t gambling; success hinges on every link holding strong. Conversely, failures happen when all links are mediocre or one is fatally weak.

Big companies face startup failure too. Average founders fail 95% of the time; even Alibaba-backed projects fail over 50%. What matters are management and innovation systems, not individual projects. Luck always plays a role.

04

Know Your Goal

Sardines and birds swarm to evade predators. Sharks and eagles seem to hunt more successfully, but scattered targets often leave them empty-handed. Graduates face the same: Many job offers seem like more chances, but clarity of purpose wins.

05

Richard Liu: E-Commerce Founders, Avoid Platforms

99.99% chance you’ll lose every penny. Two tips: 1) Never build a platform—millions can vanish without a ripple. 2) Don’t put all eggs in one basket. Diversify sales channels.

Finally, don’t mistake outliers for norms—like waiting for rabbits to crash into trees. Influencer e-commerce and livestreaming stars? Sure, some succeed—at 0.1% odds. Most should study and work hard. Success has no shortcuts; don’t waste time chasing mirages.

end

Saving a million RMB within five years of work is statistically unlikely in China.

1) Join a top internet firm, work two years, then double your salary by jumping to another. Non-tech multinationals or state firms won’t cut it—unless you’re a prodigy hired by Huawei!

2) Start a business right after graduation or after 2–3 years of work—smooth sailing, no costly mistakes. Think Snow (Cherie) before Li Jiaqi’s failed attempt.

3) Equity investments—primary or secondary markets.

These are the three paths I see to a million in five years. Any additions?