Lower commissions. Nvidia's stock price plummeted.

1. CSRC: Strengthening Supervision on Public Fund Commission Allocation, Upper Limit of Trading Commission Allocation Ratio Reduced from 30% to 15%

Yesterday, the CSRC issued the "Regulations on Securities Trading Fees for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," which will officially take effect on July 1, 2024. This marks the full implementation of the second phase of the public fund industry's fee reform. Based on static data from 2023, the total annual stock trading commissions for public funds will decrease by 38%, potentially saving investors nearly 10 billion yuan in costs over two years. Combined with the two phases of fee reforms, investors could save approximately 20 billion yuan annually.

Interpretation:
1. The upper limit for the allocation ratio of securities trading commissions to fund managers has been reduced from 30% to 15%.

Many interpret this news as negative for brokerages, but that’s not necessarily the case. Currently, fund trading commissions are collected through brokerages, but brokerages return a portion to funds for expenses like research. Lowering this cap is more detrimental to fund managers, with minimal impact on brokerages, as this money wasn’t theirs to begin with.

2. The stock trading commission rate for passive equity funds must not exceed the market average, and research services, liquidity services, and other fees cannot be paid via trading commissions.

Previously, brokerages engaged in price wars to attract clients. Now, with the cap on commission rates, they can no longer operate at a loss, which is somewhat positive for brokerages.

3. For brokerages managing funds, the commission return ratio to major shareholders remains unchanged at 30%, as does the ratio for funds below 10 billion yuan. Major players like CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities are the actual controllers of large funds.

Honestly, funds have been a huge disappointment in recent years, leaving investors with heavy losses. It’s time for a cleanup—what investors lack isn’t fund commissions but their principal! If funds could generate returns, who would care about these commissions? Brokerages often hold stakes in funds, so this news has a minor impact on them but is generally positive for the market.

2. Commerzbank Raises Price Forecasts for Gold, Silver, Copper, and Zinc

Commerzbank has raised its year-end copper price forecast to $9,800 per ton, up from $9,200. It expects silver to reach $28 per ounce by the end of the quarter (previously $29). The bank also raised its year-end zinc price forecast from $2,700 to $2,800 per ton and increased its gold price forecast from $2,200 to $2,300 per ounce.

Due to external factors, non-ferrous metal futures surged last night: LME copper rose 1.5%, lead 1.4%, aluminum 1.93%, and nickel soared 4.91%. Non-ferrous resource stocks are expected to lead gains next week.

3. U.S. Tech Stocks Plunge, Nvidia Drops Over 10%

This week’s accelerated decline in U.S. semiconductor and AI stocks began with ASML’s earnings report. ASML’s Q1 new orders fell 61% QoQ, far below expectations, triggering a 13% drop. The next day, TSMC, the world’s largest chip foundry, also reported weaker-than-expected earnings, leading to a 10% plunge.

Last night, Super Micro Computer, a peer of Nvidia, crashed over 23% after announcing it would report earnings later this month without providing preliminary results—a break from its usual practice. Historically, Super Micro pre-announced strong sales and profits, but this time, the lack of positive guidance spooked the market.

Dragged down by Super Micro, Nvidia fell over 10%, likely due to earnings concerns. The AI sector, overhyped earlier, now faces steep drops on missed expectations. Nvidia-related and AI stocks in the A-share market will likely face pressure next week.