Weekend market highlights and strategy analysis

This week has seen dramatic ups and downs, with extreme emotions. The indices have recovered, but many retail investors have lost their money. The volatility of the stock market has been vividly displayed.

Israel claimed to have launched nine missiles, while Iran said it intercepted seven. Where did the remaining two go? Some joked: One went to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the other to the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Haha.

However, this is somewhat unfair to the A-share market, as the decline isn’t just ours—global markets are falling together. There are two main culprits: First, Israel’s surprise attack on Iran, and second, Federal Reserve officials’ aggressive talk of "continuing to raise interest rates." This scared global markets, and the A-share market, as usual, followed suit...

So, how will the market perform next week? What major news happened over the weekend? Where are the opportunities?

Here’s a rundown of some key weekend updates:

【Event 1】: Regulators: Reduction in fund stock trading commission rates.

⭕【Comment】: Is this good news for stock and fund investors? Here are the key impacts:

⭕ First, in the long run, this is indeed positive. Lower commission rates reduce trading costs, improve user experience, and crucially help fund companies attract and retain clients—a significant factor.

⭕ Second, lowering the upper limit on commission distribution ratios benefits smaller brokerages, as it ensures they can also get a share of the pie.

⭕ Third, for individual stock traders, the direct impact may be limited. However, if fund user growth accelerates and fund issuance becomes more active, it could bring incremental capital into the stock market.

[Rose]【Event 2】: Economic Daily: Strict regulation of high-frequency quantitative trading.

⭕【Comment】: In a weak market, controlling high-frequency quantitative trading can prevent extreme volatility and stabilize market sentiment. For the current stock market, this is a protective measure.

Three Key Themes for Next Week

1⃣ Low-altitude economy

⭕ Frequent policy support for the low-altitude economy: The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the low-altitude economy is a prime example of new productive forces. The first low-altitude economy application demonstration island has been established in Guangzhou University Town. Suzhou has signed 251 low-altitude economy projects this year alone!

⭕ International giants are joining in: Boeing plans to enter Asia’s flying car business by 2030. Rumors suggest Tesla is partnering with Wanfeng Aowei to form an eVTOL company!

As the low-altitude economy takes off, related stocks are soaring—the second wave of the bull run may have arrived!

2⃣ Resources (oil services & chemicals)

⭕ First, the oil and gas sector surged, with stocks like Potential Energy, Tongyuan Petroleum, Beken Energy, and Huibo Petrochemical hitting limit-up.

⭕ Second, expectations of escalating Middle East tensions have spread to shipping, chemicals, and other cyclical sectors. The trigger: News of Israel-Iran tensions, which continue to intensify.

⭕ Additionally, due to Middle East geopolitical risks, WTI and Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $85/barrel and $90/barrel, respectively. Fundamentally, since the start of the year, OPEC+ production cuts and Fed rate-cut expectations have driven oil prices higher.

⭕ The catalysts for chemicals and related sectors stem from the Israel-Iran conflict. As tensions persist, short-term opportunities remain likely.

3⃣ Earnings growth

⭕ April is always the month where earnings take center stage, with stock performance closely tied to financial results. Industries with strong Q1 growth—especially those exceeding expectations—are most likely to deliver alpha.

⭕ For example, Century Dingli, Jiean High-Tech, and Andawell all hit the 20% limit-up on the 19th, while China Aluminum International reached the 10% limit-up. Earlier, stocks like Langt Intelligent and Wan’an Technology had already logged multiple limit-ups.

⭕ Their commonality? All had just released Q1 or annual reports showing significant earnings growth or improvement. In short, earnings delivery is now a critical factor for listed companies.

⭕ Timing-wise, the deadline for Q1 and annual report disclosures is end-April, and we’re now in the thick of it. Thus, identifying companies with potential earnings surprises—and avoiding those with likely declines—is especially valuable.

What’s the outlook for the A-share market next week?

2⃣ Don’t overreact to Friday’s U.S. stock and tech declines—they were driven by broader Asia-Pacific and global market drops due to Middle East tensions.

2⃣ The FTSE China A50’s Friday night performance was mostly positive, signaling no pessimism toward Chinese assets.

3⃣ The weekend’s best news was Iran’s decision not to retaliate immediately, suggesting a temporary de-escalation. Over time, fears of further escalation should ease.

Overall, while the market pulled back after touching 3100, short-term moving averages remain supportive. Trading volume shrank noticeably during the decline, indicating limited panic. After the pullback, expect a 震荡上涨 (volatile rise) next week.