Has Kuaishou, worth trillions, 'killed' Xinba, worth billions?

@新熵 Original

Author 丨 Gu Nian Editor 丨 Yi Ye

How long does it take for a top live-streaming e-commerce influencer to fall? It took Viya two hours, Li Jiaqi one night, and Xinba might need five years.

The three were once known as the "Three Kings of Live-streaming" in 2020. Judging by the results, Xinba is undoubtedly the most resilient in the market. However, even the "iron-clad" Xinba has faced another round of bans in Kuaishou's community.

Recently, Kuaishou announced an indefinite ban on Xinba and several accounts under his family. Industry insiders suggest that if this ban is enforced, it could mark the end of Xinba's live-streaming career.

According to incomplete public market data, due to multiple live-streaming incidents, Kuaishou has imposed varying degrees of bans on Xinba's accounts in 2020, 2021, and 2023. However, he has always managed to make a comeback.

The differing paces of their downfalls are not due to the inherent charm of these top influencers but rather the varying interests and timelines of each platform.

During Viya's tax evasion scandal in 2021, Taobao took just two hours to conclude the matter. Half an hour after the tax bureau's penalty announcement, the promotional event "Viya Cosmetics Festival," originally scheduled for that evening, vanished without a trace from Taobao.

An hour later, Viya's company notified employees to take a temporary break. Two hours later, her Taobao live-streaming room was banned. To this day, Viya can only continue her e-commerce business behind the scenes.

The swift, hour-level response was likely due to Taobao's prior experience handling similar cases, such as the tax evasion scandal involving influencer Xue Li, which provided a decision-making template for dealing with such red-line violations.

Another reason stems from Taobao's confidence as the long-standing top e-commerce platform. According to 2020 data, Viya's sales of 31 billion RMB accounted for 8% of Taobao Live's total GMV. However, within Taobao's entire 6.5 trillion RMB e-commerce ecosystem, this was far from indispensable.

In contrast, Kuaishou has repeatedly banned and reinstated Xinba over the years.

While Xinba's controversies never crossed legal red lines like Viya's tax evasion, his prolonged tug-of-war with the platform has led to criticism that Kuaishou suffers from "Xinba dependency."

As the former top influencer in Kuaishou's e-commerce ecosystem, Xinba's family accounted for 22% of the platform's total GMV in 2019, making them the largest force in Kuaishou's e-commerce landscape. This once allowed Xinba to challenge Kuaishou's founder openly. For example, during the "Bird's Nest Scandal" in 2020, rumors circulated that Su Hua intended to permanently ban Xinba, but Kuaishou denied the claims that same night.

However, times have changed. Amid the trend of live-streaming platforms decentralizing their top influencers, Xinba's share of Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV has declined from nearly one-third in 2019 to 5.5% in 2022.

Thus, the person Su Hua couldn't ban five years ago might finally face the axe under Cheng Yixiao's leadership today. However, compared to Douyin, Kuaishou may not yet be at the optimal moment for drastic measures.

In 2023, Douyin's GMV surpassed the 2 trillion RMB mark, doubling Kuaishou's volume. Meanwhile, Douyin recently launched a standalone e-commerce app. Data from Qimai shows that Douyin Mall's app has surpassed 100 million downloads on Huawei and OPPO's app stores, with total Android downloads exceeding 400 million.

Moreover, in terms of cultivating top influencers, Douyin has nurtured Dong Yonghui after Luo Yonghao, while Kuaishou's decentralized strategy has focused on mid-tier influencers, failing to produce another breakout star.

For the next trillion-yuan milestone, whether Kuaishou prioritizes speed or quality will be evident in how it handles Xinba's latest ban.