$NIO-SW(09866.HK) rose 20% yesterday, and the recent upward trend is quite good. Many experts have come out to talk about its long-termism. My view remains the same as always: Nio has no future, and it's best not to touch it even for short-term trading!

A company that makes complete vehicles has labeled itself as a battery-swapping business, which essentially means it lacks serious competitiveness in its main business. The company is incapable of a frontal assault and can only try to break through by opening up a flank. Even if battery swapping succeeds, it will still be a miscellaneous force, unable to become the main player.

Battery swapping isn't working either. Before Li Auto's range-extended vehicles took off, the mainstream view in the industry was pessimistic about range extenders. But after the success of the Li ONE, opinions on range extenders changed immediately, and range-extended models started popping up like mushrooms after rain. However, for the battery-swapping track, all we hear is thunder—after so many years, apart from Nio, no other brand has launched a battery-swapping model.

The biggest loser in the industry still doesn't focus its efforts on major tasks. It dabbles in smartphones, trying to replace the iPhone, and dabbles in chips, trying to replace Nvidia. Its ambitions are sky-high, but it completely ignores reality. There's no solid foundation for its investment decisions. You're a carmaker—if you can't even get cars right, how can you possibly succeed in smartphones and chips? Can you at least stabilize your main business before dabbling in these fancy extras?