The latest 2024 budget deficit estimate of 1.9 trillion basically declares that fiscal stimulus will continue in 2024. Coupled with the recovery in corporate investment and the very healthy balance sheet of the household sector, it completely declares the end of the market's expected U.S. recession, and there might not even be a landing.

So if this year still sees a combination of high interest rates, high inflation, and high growth, it still means opportunities for both growth and cyclical sectors.

On the growth front, although Nvidia's rise to the top in market capitalization came a few days late and wasn't achieved in one go, it still happened. However, Dolphin Research remains skeptical about its sustainability. Just like the skyrocketing of network equipment stocks during the early internet infrastructure-building era, truly achieving AI adoption requires affordable mid-to-upstream production materials. Overpriced materials won't help the flourishing and diversification of end-use application scenarios. Driven by cyclical investment, Nvidia's global No. 1 market cap is foreseeable and understandable. But as for the AI commercial ecosystem, without moving downstream (e.g., launching its own AI public cloud), it might be difficult for Jensen Huang's company to maintain its dominance for many years.