Likes Received2024.7.24 Morning Strategy: Will there be a rebound today?? Focus on autonomous driving/medical/technology
The market dropped smoothly yesterday, and many people don't understand why it suddenly plummeted?
This is the real market situation after losing the support of the stabilization force. After completing the previous compensatory drop, why didn't they stabilize the market yesterday?
First, the meeting ended, and they stopped pretending. Second, it's possible that institutions were allowed to net sell yesterday, revealing heavy selling pressure above, or some funds treated it as a counterparty, so the stabilization team would adjust their strategy.
Of course, the market can't rely solely on stabilization forces. You should know that over 700 billion has been bought since the New Year.
The current problem with the A-share market is that 'everyone wants a rally,' and the authorities don't want it to look too bad. Every time the market drops and public anger rises, they step in to stabilize it. That's why the market bottom hasn't truly formed yet. Without reaching real despair, how can a major reversal happen?
Of course, if they really stopped stabilizing, many people probably couldn't bear the drop. That's why the market is stuck in this difficult situation.
Now, every stabilization rebound has turned into an opportunity to sell and escape. That's why we see a big drop one day, a rebound the next, and then another big drop.
So, after yesterday's big drop, will there be a rebound today? Historically, after a drop of over 4,000 points, there's usually a recovery the next day.
Today, there's a high probability of a recovery rebound. In terms of themes, focus on autonomous driving, AI, healthcare, etc.
Now, let's look at thematic and stock opportunities:
1. Autonomous Driving
The two leading stocks in autonomous driving, DAZHONG TRANSPORTATION and JINLONG AUTOMOBILE, have surged with 6 limit-ups in 10 days and 5 limit-ups in 10 days, respectively. We haven't seen such crazy speculative stocks in a long time.
As long as the sector leaders hold up, funds will continue to flow in. Moreover, this wave is stronger than the low-altitude economy wave earlier this year.
Yesterday, the sector continued to expand, from ride-hailing to unmanned delivery, sanitation, and other areas. Low-position stocks like ZHILAI TECH and FEILIDA also advanced.
Last night, DAZHONG TRANSPORTATION and JINLONG AUTOMOBILE both released unusual volatility announcements. Today, DAZHONG TRANSPORTATION is expected to see high volume. If there's extreme selling, watch JINLONG AUTOMOBILE's reaction. If both can't hold, the follow-up stocks in the sector won't perform well either.
2. DRG/DIP
Yesterday, the National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice on the 2.0 version of the DRG/DIP grouping plan, exploring the inclusion of cross-region medical expenses into DRG/DIP management.
As soon as the news came out, the entire healthcare IT and health sector surged. Why? First, the news is indeed positive. Second, this sector has dropped a lot and is at a low position, making it attractive.
The purpose of DRG is to ensure effective treatment while controlling costs, driving demand for healthcare IT, data governance, and payment solutions—real incremental growth.
However, look at innovative drugs, CRO, and traditional Chinese medicine—they've all dropped badly. So, whether this sector is worth participating in depends on sustainability. Currently, there's no strong leading stock.
3. Tech
Tech stocks led the decline yesterday. After the market closed, JINGFANG TECHNOLOGY announced a reduction in holdings, while CHIPMORE, MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY, and PUCCO also released shareholder inquiry transfer plans.
What's inquiry transfer? It means they're reducing holdings but with a six-month lock-up period. Just as semiconductors were recovering, these shareholders couldn't wait to sell.
Ultimately, it's because our tech stocks aren't profitable enough. It's faster to cash out after a stock price surge.
Many semiconductor companies reported strong mid-year earnings, and policy support is high. The rally isn't over yet, but short-term headwinds exist. It's better to wait for tech stocks.
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