How to understand the importance of unity of knowledge and action through visiting Porto wineries

As I write this, I'm in Lisbon, Portugal, at 3 a.m. I woke up because my phone suddenly buzzed with a notification—I forgot to turn on silent mode. SUNAC (01918.HK) announced a top-up placement, which could impact Vanke (02202.HK), which was poised for a rebound within its sideways range due to potential good news. However, both stocks are still holding above their 20-day moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands' midline continues to rise. After observing the trading volume distribution, the overall trend doesn't appear too weak.

Portugal is famous for its port wine, but initially, Portuguese wine wasn't popular in the market. Back then, many British merchants operated various businesses in Portugal, including vineyards. However, the real market was in France, so Portuguese wine struggled to gain traction. A pivotal event changed this balance: tensions between Britain and France led to a ban on French wine imports, forcing British merchants to source wine from Portugal. But Portuguese grapes, grown in water-rich soil, produced a flat taste that didn't appeal to British customers. Eventually, through refining and altering fermentation methods, the rich and smooth port wine was born, becoming a favorite among wine enthusiasts worldwide. This story might seem ordinary, but can you spot the key takeaway?
To me, it echoes a concept from "The Unknown Market Wizards," a book I recently revisited. The interviewed futures traders unanimously emphasized that major trends emerge from significant events. In other words, without Britain's ban on French wine, port wine might never have gained fame. History may seem chaotic, but it often pivots on one or two critical events. In futures trading, I used to rely solely on technical analysis and my own system. But after visiting a winery and reading this book, my perspective shifted dramatically. It reminded me of Wang Yangming's philosophy: "The mind is principle; practice makes perfect."

Noticing stronger momentum in small-cap stocks, I did some research and found capital flowing into three key themes. First, the biotech hype, though its moment has passed. Second, aviation-related stocks, which have already rallied. Third, AI—but not the usual semiconductor plays like NVIDIA (NVDA.US), TSMC (TSM.US), ASML (ASML.US), or Arm Holdings (ARM.US). Instead, the focus is on the massive energy demand for AI computing. What energy source meets ESG standards while ensuring stable supply? The answer lies in nuclear power, specifically small modular reactors. This is the core driver of the sector's rise, yet market awareness remains low. Just last night, news broke that Google (GOOGL.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) are partnering with companies like NuScale Power (SMR.US), NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE.US), and Oklo Inc (OKLO.US), triggering a surge. I happen to hold one of these stocks. This experience reaffirmed the importance of combining event-driven analysis with technicals, enriching my trading philosophy.

Price movements hinge on fundamentals and technicals—they're inseparable. If technicals are the "yang" and fundamentals the "yin," traders navigate the curve between them. The white and black dots in the Taiji symbol illustrate how each contains the other; analysis and fundamentals are deeply intertwined.

Of course, "In war, the orthodox secures victory, while the unorthodox achieves success" remains key to position management. Noticing the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC.US) looking precarious and Apple (AAPL.US) possibly staging a false breakout, I hedged with ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ.US) and Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS.US). Luckily, both short and long positions gained, aligning with my earlier observation: money is rotating from big tech into small caps. This could trigger a downturn in the Hang Seng Index (07568.HK).

The Hang Seng Index must hold the critical 20,200 level. If it breaks, consider hedging with the Hang Seng Index 2x Short (07500.HK) or Hang Seng TECH Index 2x Short (07552.HK). Tencent (00700.HK) has breached its key 425 support; next is 400. Meituan (03690.HK) faces major support at 169.5—if lost, it could drop below 150. Alibaba (09988.HK) must defend 99. Xiaomi (01810.HK) looks stable, with support at 22.4; holding above its range could signal upside. HKEX (00388.HK) has short-term support at 305; a break would target 290.

1. Positions & Trades
My crude oil short reflects my updated trading philosophy—details worth sharing in the reflection section.

The Nikkei looks shaky, but no major catalyst is visible yet. Watch for U.S. economic data turning from optimism to pessimism, potentially reviving rate cuts and weakening the dollar (boosting the yen). That could be the trigger. Meanwhile, consider the Nikkei 225 2x Short (07515.HK).
I shorted Tesla (TSLA.US) because retail investors are overly bullish, ignoring downside risks amid "cheap" prices—a setup for a drop.

2. Reflection
Oct 14: Oil stalled near $75, and my system signaled a reversal to downtrend. I entered a short. Then, news broke that the U.S. and Israel agreed not to target Iran's oil/nuclear facilities. Oil plunged, and I covered near $70 (the low) as it stabilized. This trade combined technicals (bearish signals) and fundamentals (speculators flipping long, then sentiment souring). Entry: 74.33; exit: 70.29. Improvement: scale in at key levels instead of waiting.

3. Strategy
The easy money in Hong Kong stocks is gone. Finding winners is tough now—watch if the Hang Seng can trade sideways during global pullbacks. In the U.S., small-cap volatility raises risks. Blind stock picking is unwise. If tonight's data disappoints, U.S. Treasuries (03433.HK) may shine. Hong Kong-listed bond ETFs beat iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US) due to tax exemptions and higher yields.