The Hong Kong stock market has completed a daily-level correction, waiting for a new wave to start.

At the beginning of this week, Hong Kong stocks retreated towards the MA20 level. The Hang Seng Index plunged 3% on Tuesday, touching the MA20 but failing to rebound strongly. It continued to decline on Wednesday and Thursday, breaking below the 20-day moving average. Initially, it was expected that the Hang Seng Index would test around 19,500 before rebounding. However, on Friday morning, the central bank governor's speech at the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference reignited market optimism, including the previously mentioned swap facility quota and other stimulus measures, which were confirmed during the meeting. After several days of weakness, the A-share market staged a strong counterattack at midday on Friday, particularly the STAR Market and the ChiNext Index, both of which recorded double-digit gains intraday. Boosted by the A-share rally, Hong Kong tech stocks surged with heavy volume, with the Hang Seng Index up 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 6%, both touching the MA10. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

For those who prefer to trade on the right side of the trend, Friday's surge might have been too fast to catch. However, I believe there will still be opportunities to enter the market. Assuming the index doesn't skyrocket past previous highs, a pullback near the MA10 next week without breaking Friday's low would be one entry point.

Alternatively, if the index continues to rise (breaking Friday's high), a golden cross between the MA5 and MA10 could occur by next Tuesday, marking the first right-side entry point. Another right-side entry would be when the index pulls back again and stabilizes above the MA5 (with the MA10 turning upward).

Friday night's futures and next Monday and Tuesday's performance will be crucial—whether the index can withstand the pressure at the MA10. The Hang Seng Index must not fall below 20,000 again; ideally, it should stabilize above 20,500, while the Hang Seng Tech Index needs to hold above 4,480. Technically, the index could see a strong rally as early as Wednesday. However, considering current market sentiment, a continued surge on Monday to break the MA10 followed by a pullback to confirm support would be more in line with expectations. From a technical indicator perspective, the daily KDJ for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index has successfully returned to low levels (negative), and the daily cycle has completed its correction, setting the stage for a new upward wave.

Additionally, I glanced at major tech stocks—most are under pressure below the MA10. If these heavyweights move in sync, they could amplify index volatility (both upward and downward), so leveraged traders should be cautious.

In the U.S. market, the Nasdaq has been lackluster recently. On Tuesday, when it had a chance to break higher, it was dragged down by ASML's earnings leak. On Wednesday night, just as it was about to break below 20,200, it rebounded again, forming a weekly doji and entering a sideways trend. As November approaches, the U.S. election's impact on the market grows. Currently, Trump leads Harris in polls, while stronger-than-expected retail data this week continues to challenge the Fed's rate-cut agenda. These two factors will remain key market drivers. Next week, the Nasdaq is expected to remain range-bound, with resistance at 20,650 and major support at 20,200 and 20,050. Watch for a breakout direction.

Meituan's movement has been textbook: pressured by the MA5 on Monday, it found support near the MA20 mid-week, then surged with the market on Friday before retreating at the MA10 resistance. Resistance at HKD 187 and 200, support at HKD 175 and 168. A continued breakout next week could lift the market. $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Xiaomi, leading other heavyweights, broke through the MA10 with Friday's rally. After two days of consolidation next week, it could challenge new highs. However, if it surges again on Monday without consolidation, a double-top pattern might form. Support at HKD 24 and 23.3, resistance at HKD 26. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

(Last week, I mentioned that XPeng (Hong Kong), which had been relatively strong, was weakened by Monday and Tuesday's sharp declines, breaking below the key support at HKD 44.5. Friday's rebound was also notably weaker than the broader market. Unless it quickly rebounds above HKD 47 next week, it will take more time to recover.)

Tesla, weighed down by negative news from its product launch, has been range-bound for a week with little rebound. Next week, the MA10 will press down, likely leading to a breakdown below $214 first, forming a bottom divergence before targeting the MA20 resistance at $225. Alternatively, it could continue consolidating at current levels, with a potential surge toward the MA20 resistance at $233 by Friday. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Despite Tuesday's sharp drop due to ASML's earnings leak, Nvidia rebounded with a V-shape recovery, maintaining its overall uptrend and hitting a new all-time high this week. The market remains optimistic about its upcoming Q3 earnings. Next week, $135.2 and $131 are key support levels—holding above them could sustain the upward trend. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

COINBASE and MSTR, both tied to Bitcoin's recent rally, are in contrasting positions:
COINBASE has rebounded over 20% weekly but faces short-term pullback risks. Ideally, it should stabilize above $201 to continue grinding higher.

MSTR broke out of its weekly consolidation range last Friday. As long as Bitcoin holds up, its uptrend could keep pushing new highs, with the first hurdle at Monday's high of $227. Support at $203.5, $198, and $188.