Tesla kicks off the earnings season for tech stocks. Will the new financial report drive up the stock price?

On October 23, Eastern Time, Tesla will announce its Q3 2024 earnings report after the market closes. According to Bloomberg estimates, Tesla's revenue is projected to be $25.42 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share at $0.51, down 4% year-over-year. Tesla is about to kick off the earnings season for big tech stocks, and whether the stock will rise or fall remains to be seen.
In the third quarter, Tesla produced 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890, falling short of the market consensus of 463,897. Model 3/Y deliveries totaled 439,975, slightly above the consensus of 435,920, while deliveries of other models came in at 22,915, below the expected 26,315. Based on last year's delivery figures, Tesla needs to deliver around 520,000 vehicles in Q4 to match last year's performance, though its quarterly delivery record stands at about 480,000. Some social media users noted that Tesla's sales in the first three quarters of this year fell 2.3% year-over-year. From the delivery data, Tesla's performance isn't ideal, especially with significant pressure in Q4. The good news is that Tesla's September deliveries in China far exceeded expectations, marking the highest monthly delivery volume to date. Analysts attribute this mainly to Tesla's interest-free financing policy and its expansion from tier-1 and tier-2 cities into tier-3 and tier-4 markets, as illustrated by the Model Y.
Tesla is leading the big tech earnings season—will its Q3 report trigger a stock surge?
Since the Robotaxi unveiling, Tesla's stock has been on a downward trend, with investors unimpressed by Elon Musk's promises. Mainstream Wall Street views suggest Tesla lacks concrete delivery milestones or incremental revenue drivers for Robotaxi, potentially refocusing attention on fundamentals. However, Tesla's fundamentals often disappoint relative to its valuation, with high multiples disproportionate to profit growth. The recent event lacked critical details on Robotaxi, revealed humanoid robots still rely on manual control, omitted updates on the anticipated budget model, and provided no clarity on Full Self-Driving (FSD) improvements. Regarding FSD, Musk stated that fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD technology would launch in Texas and California next year, initially for Model 3 and Model Y. He also projected Cybercab production "by 2027" but offered vague timelines, saying only that he was "optimistic about the timeframe."
Analysts note that any detailed insights from Musk during the earnings call on Robotaxi and Optimus financing or mass-production strategies could positively impact the stock, even if below expectations.
One area drawing market attention is energy storage, which may provide crucial support during Tesla's strategic pivot. The company deployed 6.9 GWh of storage in Q3, up 72.5% from 4 GWh in Q3 2023, signaling strong performance.
The energy storage segment's robust results may bolster Q3 earnings, with analysts forecasting revenue of $2.17 billion, up 39.1% year-over-year. Notably, this division is highly profitable, with margins around 24.55% in Q2—far above the company-wide 17.95%.
The chart below shows Tesla's post-earnings stock movements:
Tesla is leading the big tech earnings season—will its Q3 report trigger a stock surge?
The chart tracks Tesla's stock volatility over the past two years, marking earnings release dates. In early 2022, the stock traded near $400 before a steep decline throughout the year, bottoming around $100 in January 2023. A sharp rebound followed in H1 2023, pushing shares above $250, but volatility resumed. Between 2023 and 2024, the stock exhibited wide swings, peaking near $300 and dipping close to $150. Post-earnings reactions varied: mid-2022 saw a brief rally before another drop, while mid-2023 triggered a sustained rise before a late-year pullback. Overall, Tesla's stock slid from highs to lows, rebounded in early 2023, but remains below early-2022 levels. Recent earnings sparked initial gains followed by declines amid Tesla's ongoing slump. Whether the stock has bottomed hinges on Musk's ability to address lingering uncertainties—if his answers remain ambiguous, the market may struggle to digest his promises.

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