October 23 Bitcoin market review and outlook

Market Review

Hello everyone, today is October 23rd. Let’s briefly discuss the recent BTC market. Looking back at the trend we mentioned on October 20th, a terminal wedge was completed near 69.5k, followed by a decline starting on the 21st. The first half of this decline was relatively smooth, quickly dropping to the 66k-67k range. However, at this level, the downward momentum clearly weakened, and the price couldn’t fall further.

4-Hour K-Line Signal: Bulls Hold Strong, Support Evident

From the 4-hour K-line chart, the appearance of many long lower shadows indicates that bullish forces are still providing strong support. This is a typical signal showing that prices encountered strong buying pressure during the dip. Although bears tried hard to push prices down, the bulls held firm. The earlier decline (from 69.5k to 66.6k) can be seen as the first wave of correction, and the market is now in a complex consolidation phase.

Two Short-Term Possibilities

There are two possibilities here:

1. The correction is over, and a rally is imminent: Theoretically, the duration of this correction (from 69.5k to 66.6k) is relatively coordinated with the previous uptrend. If this is the case, the price may have completed its adjustment and is ready for a rebound.  
  
2. Another wave of decline: Alternatively, this could be just a pause in the correction, and another wave of decline (similar to Wave C after Wave B) might follow, possibly testing slightly lower levels. However, since the downward momentum has weakened significantly, the depth of Wave C is expected to be limited.

High Difficulty for Short-Term Trading

For those engaged in short-term trading, the current situation is quite tricky. Going long risks another dip, while going short risks a sudden rally. For spot investors, this isn’t a big issue, but for leveraged trading, it’s advisable to wait patiently to avoid getting caught on the wrong side.

Weekly Chart: Focus on the Mid-Week Close

Let’s look at the weekly chart. There’s still half a week left, which is enough time for prices to rally. If BTC can stage a rebound over the next few days and close the week in the green, it would form a very bullish pattern. If this happens, next week could see even stronger upward momentum. Therefore, the price action in the coming days is crucial, especially whether BTC can rally tomorrow and the day after.

Daily Chart: Looks Like a Big Drop, But Can’t Fall Further

From the daily chart, although BTC appears to be in a downtrend, the actual decline has been limited. This situation is like "should fall but doesn’t," creating a "false decline" scenario. If the price can’t fall further in the short term, bulls might seize the opportunity to push prices higher.

1-Hour Chart: Technical Indicators Adjusted, But No Further Decline

Finally, looking at the 1-hour chart, from 9 AM to now, you’ll notice that technical indicators have adjusted sufficiently. If the market were to continue declining, conditions are ripe for a drop, but the price just won’t fall. In other words, the conditions for a rally are in place, and the market is just waiting for a trigger.

Conclusion: Avoid Shorting in a Bull Market, Rally Could Happen Anytime

Overall, the market is still in a bull phase, and shorting remains highly risky. Both technicals and sentiment suggest a potential rally at any moment. As we’ve said before, shorting in a bull market is not a wise choice.

That’s all for today’s analysis. Stay patient—market movements are always random, but you can make better judgments by relying on technicals and market signals.

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