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2024.10.31 02:11

Longpan Technology's international placement was 3.23 times oversubscribed, but the lukewarm response is concerning — (02465.HK) IPO placement details.

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$LOPAL TECH(02465.HK) The international placement was 3.23 times oversubscribed, neither high nor low, lukewarm. Actually, this is the kind of situation that scares IPO investors now. Clearly, the institutional market orders from the previous wave of Yibao and Horizon got addicted, and these international placement market orders, just like retail investors, thought the bull market was coming and also participated in this stock. If they're not included in the game, the only option is to sell right at the opening, just like what happened with the previous wave after CAROTE, where TMEI MEDICAL's international placement was 2.58 times oversubscribed. Clearly, those institutional market orders that played CAROTE got addicted again, and these international placement market orders, just like retail investors, thought the bull market was coming, so they placed orders for TMEI. Little did they know the market makers didn’t want to include them, resulting in a -50% drop after the clawback.

The first day of trading for this stock was quite mediocre. Today, right after the market opened, the international placement kept selling off. The stock opened 9% lower in the pre-market auction and continued to drop to -20% after opening. The selling wasn’t from retail investors but from these international placement orders. It’s rare to see Phillip and CMB not in the top two selling seats for this stock, indicating very little participation from ordinary retail investors. Those who got washed out and sold were mostly hedge funds or brainless institutional investors, which is why this stock still dropped so much on the first day even without a clawback.

Fortunately, when it dropped to 20%, Guotai Junan, acting as the stabilizing agent (green shoe), stepped in. The rebound from -20% to just -2% was entirely driven by Guotai Junan’s green shoe buying. Guotai Junan’s green shoe is quite reliable—remember the UBTECH project where their green shoe also did a great job stabilizing the price. Today, they did their best to support this stock, but even after exhausting all their green shoe ammunition, they couldn’t stop the international placement from selling off.

Let’s take a look at LOPONTECH (02465.HK)’s gray market performance:

LOPONTECH (02465.HK) opened flat at HKD 5.50 in Phillip’s gray market, spiked to a high of HKD 5.80, then immediately dropped to a low of HKD 4.95 before stabilizing and gradually climbing back in small fluctuations. It closed at HKD 5.45, down 0.91%, with a 15.45% amplitude.

Now, let’s check LOPONTECH (02465.HK)’s placement details!

LOPONTECH (02465.HK) finalized its IPO price at HKD 5.50, slightly above the lower end of the range (HKD 4.50-7.00). It raised HKD 550 million, with a total market cap of HKD 3.658 billion. The H-share market cap is HKD 550 million, and the issuance ratio is 15.04%. Placement details: 6,292 subscribers, public placement oversubscribed 3.99 times. Since it didn’t exceed 15 times, there was no clawback. The international placement was 3.23 times oversubscribed. The one-lot winning rate was 70.02%, meaning you needed to subscribe to 2 lots to guarantee 1 lot. Meanwhile, 10 investors applied for the B-group, with 0 top-tier applications. The allocation rate was 44.60%-44.69%.

LOPONTECH (02465.HK)’s B-group officially disclosed allocation list shows 4 people got 357,500 shares, 4 got 446,500 shares, and 2 got 892,000 shares. The B-group was allocated a total of 5 million shares, worth HKD 27.5 million.

Below is the officially disclosed list of top-tier B-group subscribers who got allocated:

19369*** 357,500
32011*******26481* 357,500
33030*******09321* 357,500
31023*******23146* 357,500

11010*******24002* 446,500
C2492*** 446,500
M9688*** 446,500
F2631*** 446,500

17320*** 892,000
D8106*** 892,000

Now, let’s look at the international placement situation:

LOPONTECH’s international placement had a total of 128 subscribers, oversubscribed 3.23 times.

LOPONTECH (02465.HK)’s international placement shares are quite scattered. The top 25 holders own 15.24% of the post-IPO issued shares. LOPONTECH (02465.HK) has Guotai Junan as the stabilizing agent, with a green shoe of HKD 82.5 million.

As for IPOs, the strategy of selling at the pre-market auction is indeed suitable for most people. Not only did Xincheng do this during the China Resources wave, but they also did the same with Horizon this time—Xincheng was the first to place orders in the pre-market auction. Xincheng’s iron army is always the fastest to sell at the pre-market auction. They have a group of people who are truly disciplined—they always sell at the pre-market auction on the first day, regardless of whether the stock goes up or down. Judging by the speed of their orders, they must have sent the instructions via email the night before.

Actually, this is a great strategy—just sell at the pre-market auction no matter what the IPO is, a mechanical operation without any emotional bias. Looking back now, these people are smart. For those who aren’t sure about IPOs, you can adopt this strategy too. Sometimes the simplest methods are the most effective. They must have evaluated it—selling unconditionally at the pre-market auction on the first day yields stable long-term returns. It’s definitely worth learning from. Today, Xincheng’s iron army was the fastest to sell LOPONTECH at the pre-market auction.

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