Top 10 Influencers in 2025@大中至正 Your summary from the earnings call is great! But my take is: this stale argument seems more like shifting blame to the supply chain for the overall lack of capability in the AI industry, just to give investors a bit more confidence.
Last quarter's earnings report used the same narrative for the growth slowdown, but note it's only part of the reason: "Part of the AI growth is supply-constrained."
So how exactly is hardware supply constraining Azure? Microsoft's explanation—"not keeping up with demand for AI solutions"—means the computing power can't meet what clients want for AI solutions. But when hearing this, think deeper: Is it a supply chain production issue, or could hardware design improve further, or could the AI solution algorithms be optimized more?
I think it's a mix of all, but the result is that current offerings can't satisfy clients, and clients aren't buying. It's not that the current "products" are already good enough and clients are scrambling for them, leading to a supply shortage.
According to Microsoft's earlier projections, with increased investment, Blackwell deployment, and further optimization of AI solutions, Azure's growth momentum should reaccelerate in 2025. But that's just a rosy vision—let's wait for another quarter or two of earnings to see.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Check out the detailed data summarized by @Dolphin Research. I'll share a key point about long-term investment.
Microsoft's earnings report this time, or rather the next few reports, will attempt to answer a question for the market: Where is the growth rate of AI demand? While Microsoft continues to expand its AI investments, the AI demand reflected in Azure is showing a decelerating growth trend. Fortunately, the slowdown this quarter was less than expected, but a slowdown is still a slowdown, and next quarter's expectations suggest an even greater deceleration.
When will this slowdown end? When will the high-speed growth of AI demand arrive? Whether for long-term investors in Microsoft or speculators waiting for the AI bubble opportunity, this will be an extremely important signal.
But for now, it looks like we'll have to wait at least two more quarters for this signal.
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