It has reached the critical point of this data indicator.

After several consecutive days of market adjustments last week, most retail investors began to believe the bull market had ended.

Fortunately, there has been a decent rebound in the past two days, slightly pulling back the deteriorating trend.

Since the 6th, after writing three articles in a private group suggesting a defensive position strategy for the overall market, I haven’t written anything about A-shares.

Until today, I believed the overall defensive strategy remained unchanged, and writing more would just be repetitive.

But this morning, when the intraday trend was ambiguous and most people expected another afternoon drop, we started positioning for intraday long trades.

By the afternoon, I had almost fully exited the two waves of rallies, with an average return of around 23%. Given the risk of declining volatility as a buyer, it was fortunate the directional call was correct—otherwise, this intraday long trade would have had poor risk-reward.

I rarely mention intraday A-share trades in the group, especially as an options buyer.

In a way, this also signals a shift in attitude toward the earlier defensive strategy, suggesting a potential weekly-level rebound ahead.
 

I’ve always believed the bull trend since 9.27 persists. Although I advised defensive positions starting on the 6th, last week’s adjustments don’t mean I’ve abandoned the bull thesis.
 

My consistent view is that ordinary retail investors without leverage or confidence in their skills can simply hold through the volatility.

Everyone should understand that a bull market isn’t a straight upward slope—especially for weekly or monthly trends, a one-week correction is normal.
 

Several metrics strongly support the bull market’s continuation.

1. Turnover rate: Since November, the average daily turnover for all A-shares hit 2.88%, close to the 3% level during the 2015 bull run.

2. Trading volume: Since November, volumes have hovered around 1.9 trillion RMB, even with low institutional participation and foreign outflows.

3. Margin balance: As of yesterday, it reached 1.83 trillion RMB, surpassing the peak of the 2019-2020 bull market.

In other words, market activity is already at bull market levels.

Since 9.27, the market has stayed within this major trend—so why does the bull market feel so weak?

Because the market’s scale has grown: A-shares now have a 98 trillion RMB market cap. The 2 trillion RMB daily turnover reflects more complex expectations.

ETF institutional funds represent blue-chip fundamentals, while hot money and margin trades focus on small-mid caps and high-beta plays.

These two capital flows often operate independently, creating structural divergence.

Moreover, fundamental ETF funds have been net outflows, while hot money and margin trades keep flowing in.

That’s why this bull market feels different from past broad rallies.
 

Recently, ETF inflows have resumed. After three consecutive down days (the 14th, 15th, and 18th—the only declines post-9.27), margin balances grew again on the 19th. Today’s data isn’t out yet, but intraday signals suggest further growth.

With no fundamental deterioration in turnover or volume—plus margin balances rebounding after three down days—we can preliminarily conclude the week-long correction is ending.

Another key indicator: This strong weekly trend finds solid support at the 20-day moving average, which today aligns with the waistline of the three major indices. Holding above this level is now critical for trend continuity.

The CSI 500 index is relatively neutral, blending large-cap ETF stocks with small-mid cap speculative plays.

When structural bias is unclear, a neutral index like this may be preferable—hence our long position in CSI 500 options today.