RyzenN
2025.02.23 12:16

Tesla has started recruiting for production-related positions for the Cybercab in Texas. Of course, the number is not large, so it may not necessarily signal the mass production of the Cybercab.

However, it's already March, and there are at most three months left until the release of the more affordable model Elon mentioned during the earnings call. Currently, there is no definitive information or leaked images of the related model from external sources.

If the Model Q is merely a stripped-down or downsized version of existing models, it wouldn’t be particularly meaningful. It wouldn’t represent a groundbreaking platform update. This refers to the unboxed assembly process.

Figure 2 shows recent road tests of the Cybercab at the Austin factory. Adjusting the exposure reveals that the Cybercab has a steering wheel. I have two personal guesses:

1. It’s just an artificial intervention device added for the convenience of road testing.

2. Could the more affordable model possibly be a variant of the Cybercab on the same platform?

But the first guess seems more likely. It’s improbable that the more affordable model would be directly modified from the existing Model 3/Y production lines at the four factories, considering the factory shutdown during the Chinese New Year for the refreshed Model Y ramp-up. Another modification would disrupt the early production and delivery of the refreshed Model Y, significantly impacting Elon’s target of 20% to 30% growth this year.

Additionally, Elon recently mentioned in response to news about investing in Nissan: "The Cybercab production line is like nothing else in the automotive industry." (Figure 4) Here, it’s explicitly stated as the Cybercab production line, not the Tesla production line, so the Cybercab line is likely a new production line rather than a modification of an existing one.

From a timeline perspective, if the more affordable model is an extension of the Cybercab, achieving delivery by June (Figure 3) seems unrealistic.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

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