巴菲特的价投真相：用小仓位试错，靠大仓位复利

People always say Buffett is a "long-term investor," but the real data tells a more down-to-earth story.

Nearly 60% of the stocks held by this investment guru are held for less than a year, 30% are sold within six months, and less than 1% are held for over a decade—completely different from the public perception. The truth lies in the position sizing.

Buffett puts most of his money into a few high-quality assets he truly understands, and these core positions can be held for decades. But what many don’t see is that he also uses small amounts of money to "test the waters" in the market.

The 60% short-term trades are like casting a net to quickly validate his judgments. If he’s right, he doubles down; if he’s wrong, he exits immediately.

This strategy embodies three hard truths:

First, investing isn’t fortune-telling—even the best can be wrong, so test with small stakes.

Second, when you find something truly good, bet big.

Third, markets are always changing—stubbornly holding on is the real risk.

True long-termism isn’t blind persistence but continuous optimization of your portfolio.

What retail investors should learn isn’t copying his holding periods but letting their positions do the talking.

Use small amounts to quickly validate judgments, then go all-in when you find the real deal.

Investing isn’t about who holds the longest but who can compound their assets through dynamic adjustments.

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Recently, U.S. stocks have been volatile, gold has pulled back, and the only things bucking the trend are Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related companies.

Some ask about the logic. Looking back, it’s likely due to incremental liquidity from global rate cuts and capital fleeing Trump’s market disruptions, converging into this sudden surge.

Historically, Bitcoin should at least hit the 12-15k range this year, with some institutions even optimistic about 20k+. The current price offers mediocre odds—hold if you’re already in, but if you’ve cashed out like me, wait for a better entry.

Since most Chinese can’t buy Bitcoin ETFs due to restrictions, many opt for MicroStrategy MSTR or its 2x leveraged counterparts 07799 (HK)/MSTU (US). Bears might choose the 2x inverse 07399 (HK)/MSTZ (US), but I don’t recommend shorting—long-term gains pale compared to buying low.

Lately, I’ve been eyeing a new company: Cantor Equity, ticker CEP. It’s smaller and more volatile, while MSTR’s size has diluted its premium. If Bitcoin corrects sharply this year, I might allocate a small position—but now’s not the time. Staying on the sidelines.

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Tonight, Trump announced a deal with a major country (likely the UK). Details are unknown (announcement at 10 PM), but his hype suggests something’s up.

Also, tonight is the first trading day after Powell’s speech—the real market impact often materializes here. His 2 AM China time remarks left only an hour before the U.S. close, so institutions needed time to digest and act today.

With these two factors, U.S. stocks will likely be volatile tonight. I have no trades planned—missing out beats forcing trades. Discipline over FOMO.

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Stock-wise, Google was yesterday’s biggest loser—rumors say Apple plans to replace it with in-house AI search.

I think this is a blunder, hurting Google and Apple’s already weak AI efforts.

Apple’s greatness lies in its ecosystem, not reinventing everything. Stick to the App Store—let others build great apps while you collect rent.

This needs monitoring. If Apple backtracks, Google could rebound—cheap is cheap for a reason.

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This year’s been about limiting drawdowns, not making money. Some readers are waiting to copy my moves—patience. The U.S.-China talks this weekend could spark another market quake if they go poorly.

As the saying goes, "Sell in May and go away."

$Strategy(MSTR.US) $Cantor Equity Partners(CEP.US) $XI2CSOPMSTR(07399.HK)