Just chatting~

I've been liquidating my positions since late May, and now cash accounts for three-quarters of my portfolio.

My reasoning is simple: this is the most unstable period since April this year, so I'm prioritizing defense.

Last Thursday, I bought Tencent and Alibaba. After two days without gains, I concluded my approach was wrong and exited. Then I shorted Xiaomi, which rose, confirming my strategy was correct, so I held. The market didn't validate me, so I was wrong.

I still consider the U.S. Treasury issue one of the biggest problems right now. Everyone says it won't blow up, and this morning, Besant even claimed U.S. debt would never default. Later, I checked with AI and found Trump once said:

During his 2023 presidential campaign, Trump stated in a CNN town hall that if the Biden administration refused spending cuts, the U.S. should default. He called it "more of a psychological impact" and suggested consequences could be "severe or nonexistent," even describing it as a minor episode of "a bad week or day."

In May 2025, Trump hinted at a "selective default" during a Super Bowl press conference, alleging "fraudulent" Treasury bonds. Though his advisors later clarified he didn’t mean all debt, it still sparked market concerns. That February, he repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of the $36 trillion U.S. debt, implying "some debts might not count" and suggesting audits to uncover "fraudulent payments" to reduce the burden—a move seen as justifying potential default.

However, we also need to watch Japanese bonds.

I believe U.S. debt won’t default—it can’t—but I don’t trust every word from Trump. I loved his line to Canada’s PM: "Never say never."

Maybe that could be thrown back at Besant.