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PostsHK IPO: Rongda Technology, 19x PE + Yuexiu's unbeaten record in stabilizing prices, what's the winning rate of this IPO?
In Brother Cai's IPO subscription system, after studying the prospectus, new stocks are categorized based on their win rate.
New stocks are classified into:
① High-certainty IPOs (win rate >85%, break rate <15%): All-in subscription
② Arbitrage or sentiment IPOs (win rate 70%-80%, break rate 20%-30%): Adjust position based on real-time conditions
③ Speculative bets with opportunities (win rate >65%, break rate <35%): Light position subscription
④ Pure gambling bets (win rate <65%, break rate >35%): Avoid subscription
The recently concluded PaiGe Medical Biotechnology and ShouHui fall into category ④, with only a 50-50 win rate, no different from going to Macau. Although the margin financing for these two IPOs was exceptionally hot, Brother Cai chose to avoid subscription.
Which category does $RONGTA TECH(09881.HK) belong to?
1. Reviewing Rongda Technology's main business:
Rongda Technology is a leading Chinese supplier of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) equipment, with four main product lines:
Printing equipment (POS/receipt printers, accounting for 69.5% of revenue), weighing instruments (smart electronic scales, 15.2%), POS terminals and PDAs (9.6%), and accessories/consumables (5.1%).
This shows Rongda's core business is POS and receipt printers.
This industry is still in a growth phase.
The industry's growth rate in coming years will accelerate compared to previous years.
However, precisely because the industry's characteristics are attractive, it has drawn significant speculative capital.
High-certainty IPOs feature: Strong industry growth + industry barriers to entry. If forced to choose, barriers to entry are more critical as they prevent new competitors from entering and intensifying competition.
So, do printers have entry barriers?
Anyone with basic knowledge knows printers aren't high-tech, so there are no significant barriers.
What are the consequences of no barriers?
Too many players engage in price wars. Although the industry grows overall, overcrowding means most players barely profit.
For example, China's printer industry has over 2,500 players. How can companies profit in such a crowded red ocean?
Thus, industry characteristics almost disqualify Rongda Technology from being a high-certainty IPO.
2. Financial performance review
Rongda's revenue has stagnated—remaining around 300 million for years, never reaching 400 million.
Why hasn't the industry's growth translated into Rongda's revenue?
The reason is as mentioned: too many players fighting fiercely, making profitability impossible.
Financially, Rongda Technology shows no competitive advantage.
3. Valuation
Valuation is Rongda's strong point.
Perhaps aware of its mediocre performance, the company priced shares reasonably.
Comparing with A-listed New Beiyang (P/E 119x) and Newland (P/E 31x), Rongda's static adjusted P/E is just 19.3x.
The CEO showed conscience in pricing, improving subscription odds—a positive.
4. Other factors
Sponsor and stabilizer are Yuexiu-related.
Sponsor Yuexiu Financing has no history of major breaks, unlike neighbor Xin Qi An, slightly improving odds.
Stabilizer Yuexiu Securities is stronger—with a perfect first-day record. Brother Cai's subscribed Shubao International was also managed by Yuexiu Securities.
Rongda's float is small too.
Post-cornerstone, Rongda's float is ~120 million, smaller than Xin Qi An's.
Overall, Rongda's odds are higher than Xin Qi An's.
Rongda Technology, Xin Qi An$NEWTREND GROUP(02573.HK), $MetaLight Inc.(02605.HK)—their win rates and subscription plans are detailed in "Reading Reports, Talking IPOs" (same-name public account).
Brother Cai began writing online in 2021,recognized as a top IPO analyst on X platform, top 10 financial report analyst on Y platform, and star creator on Z platform.
Investment performance:
Amid the 2022-2024 bear market, achieved portfolio doubling. Annualized returns of 26%+ from 2022-2025.
HK IPO win rate consistently >80%.
Stock picks:
Went all-in on Tencent below 250 HKD in 2022, sold after doubling.
Successfully bottom-fished Tesla at 102 USD in 2022.
200%+ returns from 2021-2024 cigar-butt stock trades.
Market calls:
Reduced A-shares from heavy to light positions during last National Day's bullish consensus, avoiding the crash.
Went heavy on HK/US stocks during April's Trump tariff black swan, profiting significantly.
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