TSMC Profit Surprises; Nio Sued by Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund｜Today's Important News Recap
1016｜Dolphin Research Focus:
🐬 Macro/Industry
1.Federal Reserve Beige Book sets the tone for a "soft landing": The latest Fed survey shows that economic activity has been "essentially flat" in recent weeks, with stable employment but some sectors starting to lay off workers. Tariffs have increased input costs while end prices have risen only slightly. Powell simultaneously hinted that "balance sheet reduction may end in the coming months," slightly raising expectations for easing.
2. US-China tariffs enter "verbal negotiation" window: US officials collectively criticized China's rare earth export controls on Wednesday but emphasized "no intention to escalate the conflict." The market interprets this as a possibility of limited exemptions being reached before November 1, with the VIX falling from its high and the S&P making a V-shaped reversal during the day.
🐬 Individual Stocks
1.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
TSMC's latest earnings report performed well, with revenue up 10% quarter-on-quarter. The biggest surprise was the company's gross margin of nearly 60%, far exceeding market expectations (57.3%). The capital expenditure range was raised to $40-42 billion, and next quarter's revenue guidance was in line with expectations, driving its US stock price up nearly 4% in after-hours trading. Dolphin Research has issued a Quick Interpretation of the earnings report, with a more detailed analysis to follow tonight.
2.$NIO(NIO.US) $NIO-SW(09866.HK)
The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has sued Nio and its CEO William Li, as well as former CFO Wei Feng, in a US court, accusing them of inflating revenue and profits and concealing control relationships through Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., alleging securities fraud. The case has been temporarily suspended. This case focuses on the financial boundaries of the BaaS model, highlighting the accounting risks of the battery swap asset off-balance-sheet model. After the news was announced, Nio's stock price plummeted. If the subsequent allegations are confirmed, Nio will not only face huge compensation but also severely damage trust in the international capital market, exacerbating financing pressure.
🐬 Leading Sectors
Shanghai and Shenzhen: Property and Casualty Insurance, Coal and Consumable Fuels, Hardware and Equipment Distributors;
Hong Kong Stocks: Highway Freight, Computer and Electronic Product Retailers, Leisure Facilities such as Stadiums;
US Stocks: Silver, Agricultural Products, Precious Metals and Minerals.
🐬 Focus for Tomorrow
1. US Import and Export Price Index MoM, US Industrial Production MoM.
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