[HK IPO] Analysis of Baili Tianheng & Zhongwei New Materials Subscription: AH new shares plummet, do you still dare to subscribe?

1. AH shares are now in a situation where they are "like a rat crossing the street—everyone shouts to beat it."

Today, Seres $SERES(09927.HK) and Joyson Electronics continued to plummet.

Falling isn't a big deal since the broader market is also down, but if you fall much more than the A-share side, something's off.

Seres A-shares fell 2.5%, but you, Seres H-shares, dare to drop 8 points?

Joyson Electronics A-shares fell 3.8%, but you, Joyson H-shares, dare to drop 8.6%?

Unbelievable!

This wave of AH shares has been quite damaging.

And today, two more AH IPOs are coming: Baili Tianheng and Zhongwei New Materials.

These two new listings are timely to test our AH-share strategy from yesterday.

Everyone, revisit yesterday's article on the public account. Whether it's risk screening or spotting dark horses, AH shares must first look at cornerstone investors, then the discount rate.

Baili Tianheng $BIOKIN(02615.HK) has a cornerstone lineup where, apart from Fullgoal Fund being somewhat reliable, the rest are mediocre, and the cornerstone stake is less than 8%, indicating low institutional confidence.

First, the cornerstone lineup fails.

Second, the discount rate.

Currently, Baili Tianheng A-shares are at 349.93 yuan, while the H-share IPO range is 347.5-389 yuan.

If priced at the lower bound of 347.5 yuan, the H-share discount rate is 9%.

If priced at the upper bound of 389 yuan, the H-shares would instead be at a 2% premium.

With such a discount rate, who gave them the courage?

Answer: A loophole in the rules.

Under AH IPO rules, if a greenshoe is issued, the new shares can enter the Stock Connect after the greenshoe period ends.

But if no greenshoe is issued, AH IPOs enter the Stock Connect on their first trading day.

The last one to exploit this loophole was Jinhong Holdings, which didn't have a greenshoe but surged in the grey market and on debut.

However, Jinhong offered a large enough discount rate, which drove the surge.

But with Baili Tianheng's discount rate, even if it enters the Stock Connect on day one, will it surge?

Brother Cai thinks it's unlikely.

Considering the cornerstone lineup and discount rate, Baili Tianheng is temporarily skipped unless A-shares surge later, then we might reconsider.

The second AH IPO: Zhongwei New Materials $CNGR(02579.HK).

First, the cornerstone lineup.

Although the cornerstone stake is as high as 44%, the lineup is entirely mediocre, with no top or even second-tier cornerstone investors, indicating low institutional confidence.

Now, the discount rate.

Based on the H-share price range, the discount rate is 30%-37%, which is decent.

In summary, Zhongwei New Materials' cornerstone lineup fails, but the discount rate is acceptable. Brother Cai expects minor fluctuations.

Unless A-shares surge later to widen the discount rate, we'll skip this one too!

2. Today is the grey market for Leshi Comfort $SOFTCARE(02698.HK).

Results show only a ~35% rise in the two major grey markets.

Many may find this below expectations, especially compared to Wangshan Wangshui's performance.

But Brother Cai thinks it's reasonable!

In the "Leshi Comfort Grey Market Strategy" for the IPO insider circle, Brother Cai noted:

As a consumer IPO, don't expect Leshi Comfort to start at 120% and rise to 200% like an innovative drug IPO.

Even with Mechanism B's sentiment premium, consumer IPOs won't be overly exaggerated unless, like Bama, they have speculative appeal.

Valuation-wise, a static ~20x P/E is reasonable, so gains are certain.

As Africa's leading hygiene product company (No. 1 in diaper market share at 20.3%), Leshi Comfort benefits from low penetration (only 20% in Africa) and a young population (over 50% under 20), with clear long-term growth logic.

It also has healthy cash flow, with $109M operating cash flow in 2024 and high-quality net profit.

Thus, Brother Cai believes that if the institutional placement doesn't dump heavily, gains could be 30%-60%, with 35% being barely reasonable.

Of course, the grey market trend wasn't bad—despite heavy sell orders pulling it below 30 at one point, it rebounded later.

This is because Leshi Comfort is institutionally favored, with solid fundamentals.

Brother Cai sold two lots in the grey market to lock in some profits, kept one for the debut given the stable but not poor trend.

Recent updates in the IPO insider circle:

1. "Latest Backup Pool for IPO Fishing, Added Veritas (providing entry/exit points and capital allocation for secondary stocks)."

2. "What to Do If You Haven't Sold Seres and Joyson Electronics Allotments?"

3. "Leshi Comfort Grey Market Trading Records."

4. "Leshi Comfort Grey Market Strategy."

5. "Grey Market Strategies for Wangshan Wangshui, Joyson Electronics, and Three Other IPOs."

6. "All-In on Leshi Comfort Remains Unchanged."

7. "Seres Grey Market Strategy."