Top 10 Influencers in 2024Uncle Yaren overestimated smart glasses. In our terms, it's called the "Hundred Glasses" battle, which is essentially a low-cost, hype-driven product primarily based on supply chain solutions. Compared to self-developed and mass-produced smartphones, the R&D costs are not on the same scale. Of course, if you're looking for AR-level solutions, that's a different story. With in-car AI already available, the R&D investment in glasses and apps is negligible—it's more like ongoing marketing hype than actual R&D.
Investment requires both the right direction and persistence. In my view, Li Auto has been trying to grasp user needs as they understand them, aiming to create hit products but ending up in a state where they can't quite break through. As Dai said, they've returned to the stage of "focusing on product quality." I don't see a problem with that, but this stage isn't one for investors to dream big.
As for some companies that persistently invest without giving up, they're suitable for both dreaming and having those dreams shattered.
China's passenger car market is bustling, but the overall pie is only so big, and there's no sign of exponential growth. Continuously pouring resources into one direction is like investing in a hearse unless someone can truly dominate the game.
Why does Li Auto want to divert its energy to making glasses? Glasses seem more like an AI label to make up for the sales decline, including the previously independent app of Li Auto's assistant, which was all the rage at launch but has long been forgotten. I always feel that Li Auto's R&D investment is too obviously utilitarian. If a strategic direction is identified, it should be continuously invested in without a financial investment perspective.
For example, BYD's DMi sat on the bench for years, but the performance of the models launched after its release was significantly improved, and it succeeded in competing with Toyota and Volkswagen in China.
Where is Li Auto's focus on continuous investment? If it defines itself as an AI company, isn't smart cars themselves focused enough? Smart driving and chips are not in the first tier either.
As a contrast, I actually agree with NIO's investment in strategic directions, such as battery swapping and service ecosystems. These are moats that require long-term capital, manpower, and technology to build and are hard to replicate.@Future Trader Pi Kanchuan
$Li Auto(LI.US)$NIO(NIO.US)
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